March 19, 2026
What the Chart Shows — and Why It Matters The dominant polysilicon futures contract (多晶硅主连) closed today at ¥38,550/MT, down ¥2,360 (-5.77%) on the session alone, on volume of 13,502 contracts. The intraday range of…
March 19, 2026
(a) The Quarter – A Clean Miss Dressed Up in Project Asset Language Q4 revenue of $1.217B missed the $1.355B Consensus estimate by ~10% — a wide miss for what is supposed to be a…
March 18, 2026
Investment Thesis We reiterate our SELL rating on JinkoSolar (JKS US) and adjust our 2026E yr-end PT modestly higher to $12.10 (-51% downside) from $10.15 prior on our updated estimates. The March 12, 2026 PV…
March 16, 2026
We digest client feedback and note a consensus that management will significantly lower company-wide incremental margins from pre-Thermal divestiture guided mid-30’s with buyside bogeys clustering around mid-20’s incremental EBIT margins. We break apart the puts…
March 16, 2026
Investment Thesis – Estimate & Macro Update We reiterate our SELL rating on CLF and keep our 12-month price target flat at $9.42/share — reflecting the February 10 GLJ update note valuation methodology (13.0x 2026E…
March 16, 2026
Investment Thesis – Management Feedback We had a chance to catch up with Nextpower management (IR contact: Sarah Lee) on March 13, 2026 for a 36-minute discussion covering eight topics spanning the company’s product strategy,…
March 13, 2026
Investment Thesis California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) January 2026 data delivers a verdict across two distinct dimensions: (1) the post-ITC pull-forward hangover is confirmed, with the MLPE duopoly’s inverter and storage share erosion accelerating; and (2)…
March 12, 2026
Austin FSD Rollout Failure: Fleet Collapse, Crash Data & Management Exodus EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This update incorporates three new data layers since our June 5th, 2025 initial Austin note: (1) NHTSA-sourced crash rate analysis confirming Tesla’s…
March 11, 2026
LME Metal Prices Mixed Today vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper +1.34% to $5.92/lb; aluminum +2.25% to $1.66/lb; nickel -1.29% to $9.32/lb; zinc +0.11% to $1.61/lb; lead -0.17% to $1.10/lb; gold -0.23% to $5,180/oz; silver -1.90% to…
March 10, 2026
The Supermarket Thesis The core insight is structural, not cyclical: NXT’s customers are consolidating, and NXT is one of the only vendors with the execution capability to consolidate their SKUs vertically. This is a supermarket…
March 5, 2026
We initiate coverage on nVent Electric at BUY w/ a street-high $151PT and estimates to match. We believe that despite management’s best efforts, the analyst community is mismodeling the size and growth of NVT’s liquid…
March 5, 2026
We initiate coverage of POWL at HOLD with a $450PT as channel checks and management commentary call into question the data center narrative priced into the stock. We model +MSD% upside to sellside numbers, but…
March 5, 2026
We initiate coverage on Solaris Energy Infrastructure at BUY with a $60PT even as BYoG power generation continues to prove itself through incremental contracting at extended durations. Speed-to-power continues to resonate in industry conversations as…
March 4, 2026
Investment Thesis FSLR 4Q25 Earnings: Ugly Guide, but the Real Story is What Comes Next The headline: 2026 guidance was a meaningful miss across every metric – revenue, volumes, and EBITDA – and it wasn’t…
March 3, 2026
Investment Thesis Sunrun is materially overvalued on any rigorous DCF construction – the stock is pricing in an outcome that the underlying cash flow trajectory does not support. Our $6.73 price target is anchored to…