Our Research


July 30, 2025

Was News of Both: (a) China Potentially Rationalizing Away 406KMt of Poly-Si Capacity (~23% of 2025E Global Solar Demand) + (b) Spot Poly-Si Prices Surging +9% in Last Night’s Trading Session = ‘Missed’ by Western “China ADR Investors”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Western American Depository Receipt (“ADR”) Investors Missing the Forest for the Trees? Despite a plethora of incremental global poly-Si news (today/yesterday), because the Invesco Solar TAN ETF is down today (where NEXTracker, or the…

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July 24, 2025

Tesla 2Q25 Review – Elon Musk’s Lack of Usual “Puffery” on Q2 Conf. Call + Guidance that 4Q25E-2Q26E Could be “Rough” + -89%/-42% YoY Fall in Q2 Free-Cash-Flow/Op. Income = “Big” Problems Ahead for Struggling Auto Maker Trading at 181x Forward P/E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Take on Tesla’s 2Q25A Results. While TSLA reported Q2 top-line sales and non-GAAP adj. EPS that missed Cons. ests. – i.e., Cons. ests. that were revised sharply lower through 2Q25, lowering the “bar” for…

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July 23, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): “Buy-the-news” – our key takeaways beyond the numbers, reit BUY

By Austin Wang

Our preview flagged incremental buyers waiting on the sidelines to buy this print – +LDD% move as of publication affirms both the viability of this narrative post-earnings AND the incrementality of this update. There just…

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July 22, 2025

Fireside Chat w/ the Largest Solar Distributor in the U.S. Sheds Light on “State of the Union” at SolarEdge and Enphase (Q&A from Today Below)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Finally Heard Back from the Head of Mid-West, Southern, and South-West Sales at the Largest Distributor of Solar Products in the U.S. In light of Enphase’s pending 2Q25E results after the close today, we…

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July 22, 2025

Enphase 2Q25 Earnings Preview – With Our Checks Pointing to Microinverter Unit Orders Falling Below Installers’ Expectations in Both the U.S. & Europe in Q2/Q3, we See a Q2 Rev/Non-GAAP EPS Miss as Likely; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Enphase a (Good) Short into Tonight’s Earnings Report? Betting against heavily shorted solar stocks (i.e., ENPH, with 26.469mn shares sold short at present, or 20.88% of the float, currently boasts its highest level of…

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July 22, 2025

Tesla 2Q25 Earnings Preview – We See Results Coming in Largely In line Due to Bitcoin Gain + Aggressive FSD Revenue Recognition Offsetting Neg. FOREX Hit + Margin Slashing Rate Buy-Downs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla 2Q25E Earnings Preview. In this note, we adjust our 2Q25E TSLA model after our review of: (a) our expectation for an increase in gross profit/car sold QoQ as other cars sold saw price increases…

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July 18, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – Is the U.S. Treasury’s Next Move Likely to Drain Liquidity, Suggesting Risk to the U.S. Equity Bull Market Run?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

A Material Amount of Liquidity Appears Likely to be Drawn Out of U.S. Equity Markets Near-Term. As a reminder to our readers, during negotiations before the debt ceiling was raised with the One Big Beautiful…

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July 16, 2025

How’s Demand for SunRun’s Most Recent Asset-Backed-Security Solar Bond (SUNRN 2025-2 Solar Lease/PPA ABS) “Faring”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… What’s the Update on SunRun’s SUNRN 2025-2 Solar Lease/PPA ABS Bond? In our attempt to keep tabs on the state of affairs in the solar Asset-Backed-Security (“ABS”) space, below we provide visibility into what…

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July 15, 2025

Barring A Divestment of Its Core Operations, Given CSI Solar is Incorporated in China, we Believe Incremental Projects in Canadian Solar’s Recurrent Segment (i.e., the bulk of its valuation) are Subject to FEOC Restrictions, Meaning they are Worth Materially Less

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Canadian Solar Incorporated in Canada or the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”)? When we asked popular artificial intelligence applications OpenAI and xAI where Canadian Solar (“CSIQ”) is incorporated, the answer from both was Canada….

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July 11, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): 2Q25 Preview – Quantified commentary accrues to narrative quality, earnings call to outweigh ’25 guidance

By Austin Wang

GEV reports second quarter earnings on 7/23 – the focus remains on the long-term narrative with equipment slot contracting the focus for Power & Electrification. Although the stock up +16% in the last 30 days,…

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July 10, 2025

China’s Shift to a Planned Poly-Si Economy = Light at the End of the Tunnel for Daqo; Upgrade from SELL to BUY; Our New $30.51/shr Yr-End 2025 PT Suggests +61% Upside

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) Now a Top Solar Sector BUY? In light of the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (“MIIT”) new proposed policy around the polysilicon segment, which includes a significant restructuring…

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July 8, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Data Dump for May ’25 + Fireside Chat w/ Structured Products Trader on Appetite for Solar ABS Paper = Update on Residential Solar “State of the Union”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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July 7, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): Initiation feedback emphasizes Power Services differentiation; pending Proficy sale

By Austin Wang

We highlight both positive and negative feedback on our initiation but we emphasize that investors agree – analysts simply aren’t doing the work on Power Services despite the abundance of data-points quantifying this compelling opportunity-set….

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July 1, 2025

The Senate’s Version of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” Suggests… When it Rains, it Pours for Chinese Solar Parts Suppliers

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The U.S. Senate’s Tax/Spend Bill Makes it a Lot Harder to Use Chinese Solar Products when Installing Solar Domestically – i.e., the U.S. Congress is taking a hard line against Chinese solar panels used in…

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June 26, 2025

Tesla’s Supervised “Robotaxi” Launch Has been a “Woeful” Flop

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, we provide on-the-ground feedback from Tesla’s widely acclaimed “Robotaxi” rollout this past Sunday. That is, Tesla’s “launch” has been limited to a handful of its most loyal cult members (not…

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