Our Research


August 17, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) – 2Q26 Recap: A 15% Revenue “Beat” the Market Sold -10.6% — EBITDA Still Doesn’t Cover Interest, FCF Burned Another ~$620M, and the 2026 Guide Was Cut; RUN Remains a “Phenomenal Short”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line: Our favorite solar science project printed a headline “beat” on every line the company would prefer you look at — and the stock fell -10.6% the next day anyway, because the market is…

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August 13, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 8/12/2026: Solar Prices Skyrocket as Chinese Producers Jointly Hikes Amid Government Intervention

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$38,010/ton = $5.41/kg) – up 7.1% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT. Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 8/12/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw…

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August 7, 2026

ShovelCheck: $1bn DC Power Management OEM on Supply Chain Constraints

By Austin Wang

We spoke with divisional leadership at a private OEM targeting $1bn in revenues from RPPs, power whips, and other white-space solutions for data centers. Takeaways below. We spoke with a general manager at a data…

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August 6, 2026

Upgrade Vertiv (VRT) to BUY – Complexity Caters to Colocation, PT to $381

By Austin Wang

Our checks call out Vertiv as uniquely positioned to benefit from continuing acceleration as colocation providers and neo-clouds grow in importance to hyperscalers and frontier labs. We view Vertiv’s product strategy of pursuing a unified…

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August 5, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: No Steel to Be Had — Nucor Hikes Again + HRC Prints 4-Yr High of $1,180/st as Sheet Inventories Crater -24% Y/Y to 2.0 Months + Lead Times Stretch to ~9 Weeks + the 50% Tariff Wall Prices Europe OUT + ISM Inflects +2.3pts = is the Squeeze (higher) Just Getting Started?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper +1.53% to $6.43/lb; aluminum -0.08% to $1.59/lb; nickel -2.13% to $8.80/lb; zinc +1.16% to $1.69/lb; lead +2.12% to $1.05/lb; gold +1.85% to $4,153/oz; silver +3.00%…

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August 5, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 8/5/2026: Industry meeting fuels expectations of upstream price increases but prices remain stable with volumes thin

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$35,480/ton = $5.05/kg) – up 8.6% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 8/5/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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August 4, 2026

Nextpower Inc. (NXT): CFO Fireside Chat Settles the F1Q Debate; F2Q Trough by Design (Not Distress), Zimmermann + Apex Are the Payoff (DCF Work Below); BUY, PT $149/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Following NXT’s F1Q27 print (7/30) and the July drawdown, we hosted a Fireside Chat with CFO Chuck Boynton and IR. The call resolved the quarter’s three optical controversies — the FQ1-to-FQ2 tariff bridge,…

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August 3, 2026

Powell Industries (POWL, BUY) – F3Q FLASH – 3.0x POWL Book-to-Bill

By Austin Wang

We view a topline miss as non-core (PetChems) as Powell dazzles us with major order flow – 3.0x book-to-bill vs. our 2.2x as a take-or-pay backlog accelerates +71% Y/Y. Expect management to further lay out…

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August 3, 2026

Nextpower Inc. (NXT) – The Company Beat and Raised. The Stock Fell 7%. One of Those Is Wrong; Sell-Off Overdone; BUY.

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Nextpower printed record revenue ($935mn, +8% y/y), a 37% adjusted gross margin, $233mn of adjusted EBITDA, $1.20 of adjusted EPS, a record >$5.5bn backlog, and raised the bottom of every FY27 guidance range — and…

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July 31, 2026

First Solar Inc. (FSLR) – Q2 Review: A Clean Beat Even After Stripping the $89mn Tariff Refund; Marking Our 5/27 Upgrade to Market; 232 Catalyst Still Locked/Loaded; Reiterate BUY; $315 Price Target Under Review

By Gordon L. Johnson II

On our adjusted numbers — which adjd the $89mn of one-time IEEPA tariff refunds back out of gross profit — FSLR beat consensus on every profit line ($3.10 adj. EPS vs. $2.83; $509mn adj. EBITDA…

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July 31, 2026

nVent Electric (NVT, BUY) – 2Q FLASH – Beat & Raise…

By Austin Wang

NVT’s 2Q update surprised us with a +24% 2Q sales beat ($1.5bn vs. our $1.2bn) with a +11% FY sales organic topline raise. Adjusted EBIT margins showed leverage on elevated volumes 21.9% vs. our 18.9%….

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July 30, 2026

ShovelCheck: $2bn Private DC OEM on UPS, Transformer Lead Times Longer Still as the Acceleration Continues

By Austin Wang

We spoke with a leading data center OEM as they ramp e-House capacity on lead times being quoted by suppliers. Transformer, UPS lead times up +89%, +67% Y/Y Engineered components continue to see demand well…

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July 30, 2026

US Rates Strategy | FOMC Review — The Referee Leaves the Field: Warsh Ends Two Decades of Administered/Managed Yields

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fed held yesterday while three members dissented for a hike — and the Chair spent his press conference explaining why he didn’t need one: the bond market’s intermeeting selloff, among the largest in two…

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July 29, 2026

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) – 2Q26 Review: A Refund Check Is Not a Business Model

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Ex the one-time tariff windfall, GAAP earnings flipped to a loss; the “beat” was a check from U.S. Customs. We’d fade it. Reiterate SELL. Bottom Line Enphase reported 2Q26 revenue of $291.9mn (vs. $292.1mn street),…

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July 29, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 7/29/2026: Upstream prices soften again as the market awaits signals from an upcoming regulatory meeting

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$32,680/ton = $4.64/kg) – down 4.6% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 7/29/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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