October 15, 2026
After an extensive model revamp, supported by our extensive Q2-to-Q3 bridge analysis detailed below, compared to consensus we are $0.14 below on EPS, 128bp below on gross margin, and 70% Below on EBIT; Energy’s 13.7…
October 13, 2026
In March, the Chief Sales Officer of one of America’s largest solar distributors told us things would pick up. In June, he said the coming months should help. In what follows, we detail what he’s…
October 13, 2026
Businesses are spending on AI like it’s 1999. Households are answering surveys like it’s 2008. We are not calling a recession. We are calling concentration, and concentration has a way of becoming the story later….
October 9, 2026
Reiterate SELL, $188 PT. Bernstein’s hyperscaler checks call the quality concerns overblown. Its own exhibits describe the problem. We came back from Yotta (28-30 September) with secondhand chatter that Vertiv’s liquid-cooling equipment was having quality…
October 7, 2026
China’s polysilicon cuts are talk until they show up in the meeting minutes. First Solar is at 10.9x trailing earnings and the sell-side cannot agree on why. Key Takeaways Nothing new in price, which is…
October 7, 2026
Mapping twelve weeks of project slippage (mid-July to October 6) onto GEV, VRT, MOD, TLN and peers, and asking whether any of it reaches 2026 guidance Set-Up. Since the Q2-2026 reports, the news on data…
October 6, 2026
A cyclical industrial that came public through a SPAC and nearly ran out of road in 2022 now trades at 28x forward EBITDA. Our 2027 adj. EBITDA is 6% below the Street, the liquid-cooling market…
October 1, 2026
We spent two days at Caesars Forum with roughly 6,000 people who build, finance, power, and cool AI data centers. We went in with four worries: politics, the grid, the AI safety debate, and speculation…
September 30, 2026
Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$36,685/ton = $5.23/kg) – down -1.36% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 9/30/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…
September 30, 2026
KEY TAKEAWAYS The California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) posted June, July and August in one update this week, so we get to grade our own homework three times over. In July we said June would decide…
September 29, 2026
We took yesterday’s main number to the head of the structured products desk at a bulge bracket bank. He said the performance is bad and getting worse, that he would not buy a new-issue Sunrun…
September 28, 2026
Both deals we named as next to breach in our last note have breached. Delinquencies rose in August and again in September. Over the last two months, the pools in this file lost 34 cents…
September 25, 2026
The Treasury 5y5y forward hit 5.41% on September 25, its highest level since April 2010 and within a basis point of its 2007 high. After taking out 2.33% of expected inflation, that is a real…
September 25, 2026
LME Metal Prices Mixed vs. Previous Close: Yesterday, copper +0.28% to $6.69/lb; aluminum +0.07% to $1.64/lb; nickel -0.65% to $8.57/lb; zinc +0.32% to $1.80/lb; lead -0.57% to $1.10/lb; gold -0.29% to $4,275/oz; silver -0.98% to…
September 24, 2026
We model 479.1K third-quarter deliveries, 2.3% above consensus. The buy-side wants “above 2Q26,” which is 480.1K. We think anything under 480K is taken as negative We are at 479.1K deliveries for 3Q26, down 3.6% y/y…