Our Research


October 24, 2024

Tesla Q3 Review – Margins Surge on FSD/ZEV Credit Sale & What Appears to be More Capitalized Expenses (Similar to WorldCom/HealthSouth); & E. Musk Guides to Record Q4 Deliveries of >514.9K Cars

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Reports Strong Unaudited Q3 Numbers, and Guides to Record Q4 Delivery Growth vs. Tepid Delivery Data Thus Far. Yesterday, after the close, TSLA reported rev/adj.-EPS of $25.2bn/$0.72 vs. Cons. $25.4bn/$0.60 (GLJe $25.4bn/$0.49). Furthermore, TSLA…

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October 23, 2024

A Financial Reporter Asked Us About the Old Maxim “You Should Never Bet Against Elon Musk”; in the Below, we Provide our Answer

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Early This AM We Got the Age-Old Question Around Tesla From a Prominent Financial Reporter. Around 3:13am this morning, while GLJ was tending to 4.8-month old GLJ Jr. (for the 3rd time since going to…

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October 22, 2024

Enphase 3Q24 Earnings Review: The Bigger They Are (ENPH Trades at a 36.6x P/E), The Harder They Fall (ENPH’s Q4 Guidance Misses by a “Nautical Mile”)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Enphase is the Solar Darling of Both Wall Street (i.e., the Sell-Side) and the Hamptons “Elite” (i.e., the Buy-Side). When looking at the current distribution of Wall Street ratings for ENPH, we note 22 BUYS,…

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October 17, 2024

Tesla Q3 Preview – We See a -18.3% Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck & a Hypothetical Fair Value of ~$60/shr (Even When Giving E. Musk Credit for His Perpetually Delayed Robotaxi “Promise”)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We See a Significant Q3 Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck, as Well as Q3 Free Cash Flow of -$18mn vs. the Current Cons. Est. of +$1.635bn. Based on the analysis herein, we believe TSLA is slated…

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October 8, 2024

What if the Cavalry (i.e., the “Magical Rebound” Wall Street Typically Predicts for Fallen Solar Stars) Isn’t Coming? Is SolarEdge Still a Good/Great Short Following its Recent Acute Slide?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge Still Boasts 4 BUYS, 28 HOLDS, w/ just 5 SELLS (despite collapsing -78.2% YTD vs. +19.4% for the S&P 500 YTD), and an Avg. Forward 12-Month Price Target of $32.45 (i.e., +58.9% upside from…

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October 2, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – August 2024 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” – Is Tesla Taking Storage Share Away from Enphase?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China were not…

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September 30, 2024

Has the Decision by China’s State Grid Company to Cut the Avg. Price it Pays for Solar Power to ~0.15 Yuan/kWh, from ~0.39 Yuan/kWh in 2023, Put Global Solar Demand at Risk? What’s up w/ U.S./Europe Solar Demand?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

On Sep. 23rd, China’s National Energy Administration (“NEA”) Released Data on Chinese Solar Installs Through Aug. 2024. In what follows, we provide an update on the state of the world’s most important solar market, China….

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September 26, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – What Does Yesterday’s US Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) Solar Installation Update Mean for the US Solar Market in 2024E, How is US Solar Demand Trending in Aug./Sep., & Did SMA Solar Really Say That?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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September 24, 2024

We See Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Coming in Below Consensus’ 461.5K Est. & the Buyside’s >470K “Whispher”; Our Work Points to 456.6K in Q3, Up +2.9% QoQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Things Would Be Even Worse Without TSLA’s 1.99% 6yr APR Financing Offer in U.S./Canada. Based on the latest China data from early this morning (discussed below), updates from the 6 countries that report daily sales…

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September 24, 2024

We See Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Coming in Below Consensus’ 461.5K Est. & the Buyside’s >470K “Whispher”; Our Work Points to 456.6K in Q3, Up +2.9% QoQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Things Would Be Even Worse Without TSLA’s 1.99% 6yr APR Financing Offer in U.S./Canada. Based on the latest China data from early this morning (discussed below), updates from the 6 countries that report daily sales…

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September 20, 2024

Iron Ore Price Downside Risk + Pending CAPEX Step-Up = Keep us Cautious on N-Term Outlook/Fundamentals; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, Where Do We Stand on Fortescue and How Did its FY24 Results Impact our Outlook? Our SELL rating on FMG has been predicated on our negative 2024E-25E outlook for iron ore prices, as well…

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September 18, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 2Q24 & Jul. ’24 + U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) YTD Installs/Prices + Is Lower-Margin Battery Demand Displacing Demand for Inverters Due to NEM 3.0?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China for mono-grade…

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September 12, 2024

Are Attendees at the RE+ Renewable Energy Conference in Anaheim, CA Correct to Say the European Solar Market is a “Mess” – Fireside Chat w/ Head of European Sales for Huawei

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Are Our European “On-the-Ground” Contacts Saying About the State of Solar Demand in Europe? Following comments from our meetings at RE+ in Anaheim, CA this week (link), we had the opportunity to catch up…

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September 10, 2024

While We Acknowledge Enphase Has Entered the Recovery Phase, at its Current 26.9x NTM P/E Multiple, is it All More Than “Priced in”, Suggesting the Valuation Remains Far Too Rich?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Acknowledge Enphase has Entered its Recovery Phase… But Does that Make it a BUY? Enphase reported 2Q24 sales of $303.5mn, missing Consensus’ est. of $309.9mn, but guided 3Q24E to $390mn (at the mid-point), suggesting…

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September 9, 2024

Applying a Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation Approach (Which Values the Company With or Without Nippon M&A) We See Sig. N-Term Upside; Upgrade to BUY w/ $38.57/shr PT

By Gordon L. Johnson II

U.S. Steel’s Stock Price has Come Down a Lot, but Does that Create a Buying Opportunity? Since peaking at $49.59/shr 12/18/23, U.S. Steel’s (X; BUY) shares have fell -36.9% vs. the S&P 500 being up…

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