December 10, 2025
Did Piper Sandler Make a Wild Claim Based on Cherry-Picked Data? Tesla’s share price outperformed in yesterday’s trading session, which many attributed to a Wall Street analyst report from Piper Sandler, which concluded, based on…
November 25, 2025
Just How ‘Good’ – or More Accurately, How Bad – Are Tesla’s Auto Sales Trending With Nearly Two Months of Q4 Now in the Rearview? When we strip out the optimism, the spin, and the…
October 23, 2025
Tesla’s Q3 Results Disappoint; Musk’s Promised Future Slips Further into Fantasy. TSLA reported Q3 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $28.095bn/$0.50 vs. Cons $26.365bn/$0.54 (GLJe $27.8bn/$0.59), or a bottom-line miss despite a sizeable top-line beat. The problem? Lower…
October 22, 2025
Consensus Estimates Appear Too Low Ahead of Tesla’s Q3 Print (after the close today). Consensus appears too conservative heading into Tesla’s Q3 release. As shown in Ex. 1, we’ve revised our 3Q25E automotive revenue higher,…
October 3, 2025
End of Tax Credit Pushes Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries to Record High. Everyone knew the U.S. would be strong due to demand pull-forward, but just how strong was the question. Yesterday, we got the answer. TSLA…
September 17, 2025
Consensus hasn’t bothered to update its 3Q25E Tesla delivery estimate since early July – which tells you all you need to know about the rigor of Wall Street coverage here. We believe the Street’s Q3…
August 21, 2025
Is Tesla’s Valuation Justified When Applying the “Heroic” Assumptions from its Biggest Bulls? In this note, applying the public forecasts from some of Tesla’s most ardent bulls (i.e., Morgan Stanley), we attempt to address why…
August 8, 2025
All 20 members of Tesla’s Dojo team – including its leader, Peter Bannon – have left the company to join a startup called DensityAI (yes, the entire team). Last night, we learned that the lion’s…
July 24, 2025
Our Take on Tesla’s 2Q25A Results. While TSLA reported Q2 top-line sales and non-GAAP adj. EPS that missed Cons. ests. – i.e., Cons. ests. that were revised sharply lower through 2Q25, lowering the “bar” for…
July 22, 2025
Tesla 2Q25E Earnings Preview. In this note, we adjust our 2Q25E TSLA model after our review of: (a) our expectation for an increase in gross profit/car sold QoQ as other cars sold saw price increases…
June 26, 2025
What’s Up? In this note, we provide on-the-ground feedback from Tesla’s widely acclaimed “Robotaxi” rollout this past Sunday. That is, Tesla’s “launch” has been limited to a handful of its most loyal cult members (not…
June 16, 2025
Re-Publishing Our Tesla 2025E-26E Estimates and Model for Maintenance Purposes. In this note (Ex. 1-4) we provide our most recent estimates for TSLA. More specifically, we update our quarterly: (a) delivery ests., (b) revenue ests.,…
June 10, 2025
It’s Now Clear… Tesla has a Demand Problem in China. In this note we detail the collapse in TSLA’s China sales year-to-date (“YTD”), based on both new monthly and weekly data released yesterday/today, despite: (a)…
May 7, 2025
Even the Tesla “Faithful” are Beginning to Realize the Stock Price Could be in (Big) Trouble Should its Car Sales Continue to Falter in 2025. When a Mag7 stock (i.e., TSLA) trades at 138x its…
April 21, 2025
We have Updated our Bottoms-Up Tesla Earnings Driver Model and See a “Big Problem” w/ the Current 1Q25E non-GAAP EPS Consensus Est. In the following update, when considering the impact(s) from: (a) TSLA’s transition from…