July 24, 2025
Our Take on Tesla’s 2Q25A Results. While TSLA reported Q2 top-line sales and non-GAAP adj. EPS that missed Cons. ests. – i.e., Cons. ests. that were revised sharply lower through 2Q25, lowering the “bar” for…
July 22, 2025
Tesla 2Q25E Earnings Preview. In this note, we adjust our 2Q25E TSLA model after our review of: (a) our expectation for an increase in gross profit/car sold QoQ as other cars sold saw price increases…
June 26, 2025
What’s Up? In this note, we provide on-the-ground feedback from Tesla’s widely acclaimed “Robotaxi” rollout this past Sunday. That is, Tesla’s “launch” has been limited to a handful of its most loyal cult members (not…
June 16, 2025
Re-Publishing Our Tesla 2025E-26E Estimates and Model for Maintenance Purposes. In this note (Ex. 1-4) we provide our most recent estimates for TSLA. More specifically, we update our quarterly: (a) delivery ests., (b) revenue ests.,…
June 10, 2025
It’s Now Clear… Tesla has a Demand Problem in China. In this note we detail the collapse in TSLA’s China sales year-to-date (“YTD”), based on both new monthly and weekly data released yesterday/today, despite: (a)…
May 7, 2025
Even the Tesla “Faithful” are Beginning to Realize the Stock Price Could be in (Big) Trouble Should its Car Sales Continue to Falter in 2025. When a Mag7 stock (i.e., TSLA) trades at 138x its…
April 21, 2025
We have Updated our Bottoms-Up Tesla Earnings Driver Model and See a “Big Problem” w/ the Current 1Q25E non-GAAP EPS Consensus Est. In the following update, when considering the impact(s) from: (a) TSLA’s transition from…
April 17, 2025
Is Consensus Making a Grave Error in its Estimate for Tesla’s 2Q25E Global Auto Sales? The best investing opportunities arise when there are material dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to…
March 31, 2025
GLJ Tesla 1Q25E and 2025E Delivery and Production Estimate Update. While we have, previously, generalized TSLA’s 1Q25E deliveries at 360K-370K, in what follows we provide the thought process around the evolution of our TESLA 1Q25E/2025E…
February 12, 2025
Tesla’s Week 6 China Sales Update Yesterday = No Bueno; U.S./European Sales Show (very) Troubling Signs; and June Unsupervised Robotaxi Rollout Appears Set to Severely Disappoint. In this note, we update TSLA’s global sales trend…
January 28, 2025
Will Earnings be a Positive Catalyst (Similar to 3Q24) or a Negative Catalyst (Similar to 2Q24)? Due to: (a) a record mix of negative-gross-margin Chinese car sales in Q4 (i.e., 39.7% vs. 39.6% in Q3,…
January 3, 2025
Tesla Has Stated They Have a Daily View into Real-Time Demand, Unlike Most Other OEMs with Dealerships. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, TSLA has boasted, previously, that because they get real-time data, on a…
December 27, 2024
We Visited a Large Tesla Dealership in Charlotte, NC Yesterday. With weekly auto insurance data available for the Chinese auto market, and daily/monthly insurance registration data available in Europe, the key unknown each quarter as…
December 17, 2024
Tesla’s Stock has Been on a Tear; is this Indicative of Better Fundamentals, or Simply Options Market Activity/Manipulation? Since 10/23/24, or when TSLA reported slightly better-than-expected 3Q24 results, the stock has surged +116.7% higher; this…
October 24, 2024
Tesla Reports Strong Unaudited Q3 Numbers, and Guides to Record Q4 Delivery Growth vs. Tepid Delivery Data Thus Far. Yesterday, after the close, TSLA reported rev/adj.-EPS of $25.2bn/$0.72 vs. Cons. $25.4bn/$0.60 (GLJe $25.4bn/$0.49). Furthermore, TSLA…