Industry Notes


August 10, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat(s) w/ Head of Sales for a Large U.S. Solar Parts Distributor (i.e., are ENPH and SEDG Facing an “Existential” Event?) and a Large Chinese Solar Investment Fund Based in Hong Kong (i.e., is the EU Solar Market Faring Worse than U.S. Investors Realize?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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August 7, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Head of Sales for Large Global Inverter Player & Our Take on the Sudden Departure of Sunrun’s Chief Accounting Officer Following Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 7-8), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in…

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August 2, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Have You Heard of the Fed’s ‘Other Credit Extensions’ (“OCE”) Emergency Lending Facility & is It Possible the Repayment of OCE Loans this Year Will Create “Chaos” in US Stock Market(s)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In this Note, We Discuss What Could Prove to be a Mar. 2020-Like Black Swan in 3Q23/4Q23. Is there a black swan coming this year that’s currently flying under the radar? In this note, we…

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July 27, 2023

Is Sunnova Copying the Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model of Borrowing Short at a Higher Rate than it’s Lending Long, Meaning “Catastrophe” is Only a Matter of Time?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fundamental Question Sunnova Investors Must Ask the Company/Themselves is Simple: “Why Does it Appear Sunnova is Copying the Failed Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model”. While we get into NOVA’s dismal results in the…

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July 26, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – 20-City Case Shiller Home Price Index Shows 3rd Consecutive Year-over-Year Price Drop & Homebuyer DTI Ratios Surge; is “Housing Bubble 2.0” at Risk of Popping

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, How’s the Housing Market Shaping Up? In this note, we look at: (a) the recent Case-Shiller National Home Price Index data reported yesterday, as well as (b) US homebuyer debt-to-income ratios (“DTIs”) and downpayment…

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July 7, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – “Mr. Market” is Telling Us: Houston, We Have a “Liquidity” Problem

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update on Global Liquidity from the Ten Central Banks we Track as well as a Steel Industry “Check-Up”. In this note, we look at the current liquidity situation at the world’s largest ten Central Banks…

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July 6, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Apr/May Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Installs/Attach Rates & Sharp Fall in Solar Installs; Are Solar Bulls Underestimating the Negative Effects from NEM 3.0 & Collapse in Nat. Gas Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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June 16, 2023

Fireside Chat 2.0 with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward June U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -1.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot HRC…

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June 16, 2023

Fireside Chat 2.0 with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward June U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -1.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot HRC…

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June 12, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Liquidity Check-In, May Rental Inflation Update (has the Fed “Licked” Rent Inflation), & Steel Market Chart Refresh

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So How are Things Trending when Looking at Liquidity, Rent Inflation, and Steel Market Data? In this note, we provide a check-in on: (a) the state of U.S. liquidity when looking at a combination of…

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June 6, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly Musings – California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump Provides Insights into Current State of U.S. Solar Demand & Update on 2023E China Solar Demand

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 11-12), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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May 25, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Does the Re-Acceleration in April Rent Inflation Suggest the Fed’s Victory Lap About “Having Licked” Rent Inflation was… Premature?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is There a Pending Disaster Brewing on the Fed’s Inflation Fight Front, which is Flying Completely Under the Radar? In recent communications with the market, the Fed has expressed its view that core inflation (i.e.,…

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May 23, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Top-3 US Solar Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on How 2Q23 is Trending; Plus, EIA Updates on Imports, Installs, and Shipments as Well as EU Solar Market Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 5-6), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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May 22, 2023

GLJ Research Macro Update: “Magical Elixir” Update – So Far, The “GLJ Research Elixir” Has Worked in Predicting Stock Market Moves… So What’s to Come?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Invesco QQQ Index and the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) Balance Have Tracked Each Other Quite Closely Since 11/1/22. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s TGA account balance (i.e., the “piggy…

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May 19, 2023

Is Iron Ore the Next “Big Short” – i.e., Looking at a Plethora of Chinese Data, is the Long-Fabled $20/mt Iron Ore Price Back on the Table?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Has the Greatest Iron Ore (“IO”) Commodity Consumption Bubble in History Burst, Suggesting Underappreciated Risk to IO Prices in 2H23/2024? In the analysis put fourth within this report, we look to answer the question posed…

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