Our Research

Consensus hasn’t bothered to update its 3Q25E Tesla delivery estimate since early July – which tells you all you need to know about the rigor of Wall Street coverage here. We believe the Street’s Q3…

Our Inaugural Metals & Mining Daily Snapshot. Welcome to the first edition of our Metals & Mining Daily Snapshot. Starting tomorrow, you’ll have this in your inbox at 7am every morning – think of it…

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

What’s Inside? Twenty-three exhibits capturing the core industry trends that will likely dictate North American steel pricing in the months ahead. Conclusion. Spot HRC prices have held mostly steady over the past two weeks, but…

We view near-term underperformance as a buying opportunity ahead of a September conference season where management could announce a matching expansion. Reiterate BUY, PT to $757 – +31% upside from current levels. +30% capacity expansion…

The World Nuclear Association’s flagship gathering, the World Nuclear Symposium (“WNA”), kicks off next week. Historically, this is when much of the forward-years’ contracting for U₃O₈ supply gets done. The timing of Cameco’s production cut…

Global Solar Demand: An Update. We’ve reviewed the patchwork of government data, trade association reports, media anecdotes, and BloombergNEF estimates to frame where global solar demand stands heading into 2H25E and 2026E. The popular narrative…

Canadian Solar: Are Investors Looking the Wrong Way? Canadian Solar reported another disappointing quarter, with Q2 revenue and earnings below expectations and management guiding Q3 and 2025 materially lower. While many of the “China ADR…

Is Tesla’s Valuation Justified When Applying the “Heroic” Assumptions from its Biggest Bulls? In this note, applying the public forecasts from some of Tesla’s most ardent bulls (i.e., Morgan Stanley), we attempt to address why…

We initiate coverage of Vertiv with a SELL rating and a $112 PT (-17% downside). While VRT has enjoyed a largely justified multi-year re-rate on the back of AI infrastructure tailwinds, we believe the stock…

The US Treasury Has Issued Guidance… and it Couldn’t Be Better News for the Residential Solar Space. While many thought President Trump’s Treasury department was going to kill the loophole that allowed residential solar companies…

For the First Time Since 2018, w/ the Fed’s QE Slush Fund (i.e., the “RRP”) Now Nearly Empty, Treasury Issuance Has to Come From Bank Reserves; Are Equity Bulls Overlooking This? Liquidity fell in 2022…

Solid Results/Outlook. FSLR’s reported solid Q2 results, with both revs and EPS ahead of expectations. And, while the company recorded negative net bookings in 1H25 (due to 1.1GW of cancellations in Q2), FSLR has since…

Is Sunrun Counting on the IRS to Be as Inept with Safe Harboring as It Has Been with the Recursive ITC? Earlier this week, we highlighted Sunrun’s own guidance that its inventory will balloon from…

All 20 members of Tesla’s Dojo team – including its leader, Peter Bannon – have left the company to join a startup called DensityAI (yes, the entire team). Last night, we learned that the lion’s…