Our Research


October 23, 2025

Tesla Q3 Review – Earnings Fall Short & Musk Pushes “Moonshot Pipe Dreams” (FSD + Optimus) into Distant Future; Our New Model Suggests 4Q25E/1Q26E will be a Horror Show

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s Q3 Results Disappoint; Musk’s Promised Future Slips Further into Fantasy. TSLA reported Q3 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $28.095bn/$0.50 vs. Cons $26.365bn/$0.54 (GLJe $27.8bn/$0.59), or a bottom-line miss despite a sizeable top-line beat. The problem? Lower…

Read More >>

October 22, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL) – 3Q25 Review: Rubin beat-and-raise quarter meet peak market noise

By Austin Wang

Management posted a positive update we believe met elevated buyside expectations. Vertiv continues to realize accelerative demand trends for its core product suite, but medium-term competitive concerns and increasing keep us cautious here for reasons…

Read More >>

October 22, 2025

Tesla Q3 Earnings Review – Results Will “Shine” and Musk will be Heavy on the Optimism Ahead of Nov 1st Shareholder Vote (he will likely avoid discussing 4Q25E/2026E)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Consensus Estimates Appear Too Low Ahead of Tesla’s Q3 Print (after the close today). Consensus appears too conservative heading into Tesla’s Q3 release. As shown in Ex. 1, we’ve revised our 3Q25E automotive revenue higher,…

Read More >>

October 21, 2025

ShovelCheck – top 3 gas turbine E&C emphasizes scale = staffing flex

By Austin Wang

We spoke with the head of business development at a leading gas power E&C. Pricing trends continue to inflate sequentially with even brownfield work seeing inflation. We also dissect exactly how staffing expansion happened at…

Read More >>

October 21, 2025

Cleveland Cliffs’ Q3 Results Disappoint Despite 2025 “Goldilocks” Market for US Steel Prices; w/ US Prices Now Falling, Yesterday’s Share Price Surge (Likely) Provides a Great Entry Point for Short Sellers (not yet involved)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cleveland Cliffs: Another Chapter in the Fairy Tale. Cleveland Cliffs just posted its fifth consecutive quarter of negative gross margins – this, despite President Trump’s trade war artificially inflating U.S. steel prices since 1Q25. Yesterday,…

Read More >>

October 17, 2025

Picks & Shovels: new gas turbine OEM, major hiring in transmission OEM

By Austin Wang

Major transmission OEM announces large hiring plans. South Korean gas turbine secures first U.S. order. Major RTO receives FERC approval to consider BTM generation in approving transmission offtakes. PRIM ($138.82, BUY) – Hitachi to hire…

Read More >>

October 16, 2025

Argan (AGX, HOLD) – CEO 1×1 takeaways on staffing, project landscape

By Austin Wang

We caught up with Argan CEO David Watson earlier this week. The focus remains firmly on Argan’s Gemma Power Systems, along with Fluor (FLR, not rated) one of the few leading CCGT E&Cs available for…

Read More >>

October 16, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly: California Solar Initiative Data Dump for Jul./Aug. ’25 – Do Historical Correlations Imply (Sizeable) Risk to ENPH’s & SEDG’s Upcoming Q3 Earnings Reports?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Solar/Storage Markets. Over the 3Q15-to-2Q25 period (i.e., 40 quarters of data),…

Read More >>

October 14, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): 3Q25 Preview – Delayed sticker shock – Are investors napping on ’24 CCGT pricing reveal? PT to $758

By Austin Wang

We expect 3Q25 to be a positive event for shares as GEV surprises investors with a robust bookings pathway driven by CCGT SRA conversion and Saudi condensers hitting equipment RPOs for Power & Electrification. Expect…

Read More >>

October 13, 2025

Canadian Solar: Is Wall Street Sleeping Walking Past what will Likely Prove to be an “Unfortunate” Q3?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Q3 Preview – More Trick than Treat. Once again, the market seems content to sleepwalk – this time straight into what looks like an unfortunate Q3 for CSIQ. For those who actually read 10-Ks and…

Read More >>

October 10, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): New CEO underscores push into growth end-markets

By Austin Wang

We are hopeful about the appointment of a tenured Jacobs executive with strong experience across Primoris’ most critical growth markets. Reiterate BUY. Traditionally, Primoris has drawn senior and divisional leadership from a cadre of ex-CB&I…

Read More >>

October 8, 2025

Picks & Shovels: Secretary of Energy on data centers, liquid cooling product launch

By Austin Wang

Secretary of Energy stresses need for collocated power in media appearance. A Vertiv rival held a launch event reintroducing an expanded liquid cooling suite for AI / HPC applications. Vertiv announces the impending appointment of…

Read More >>

October 7, 2025

Fireside Chat w/ Large Solar Distributor Sheds Light on Current “State of the Union” for Solar Sector Headed into Q3 Results

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What is the Largest Distributor of Solar Products Seeing into Year End? In the below, we provide a Q&A we had, yesterday, with the largest distributor of U.S. solar products in the world – and…

Read More >>

October 3, 2025

As Expected, Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Beat Consensus; US Sales Jump +29% YoY; But, the “Hangover” from the Party Appears to Just be Getting Started

By Gordon L. Johnson II

End of Tax Credit Pushes Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries to Record High. Everyone knew the U.S. would be strong due to demand pull-forward, but just how strong was the question. Yesterday, we got the answer. TSLA…

Read More >>

October 3, 2025

Picks & Shovels: Matador, Siemens Energy 2GW gas order, GEV Onshore Wind order

By Austin Wang

Fermi S-11 sets extremely ambitious timeline for gas & nuclear generation deployments, discloses possible PRIM involvement. Xcel Energy has purchased 2GW in gas generation from GEV competitor Siemens Energy to serve load growth in TX,…

Read More >>