Our Research


November 14, 2025

CSIQ Q3 Review: Does Canadian Solar’s “Brazen” 2026 Outlook Position it as an Even Better Short?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Happened? Yesterday, due mainly to a few unexpected storage project sales, CSIQ reported Q3 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $1.5bn/-$0.58 vs. GLJe $1.5bn/-$0.41 (Cons. $1.4bn/-$0.53), and e-STORAGE sales of 2.7GWh (above its guidance of 2.1-2.3GWh). Yet,…

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November 14, 2025

ShovelCheck: AGX linked with new CCGT project for West Virginia

By Austin Wang

FirstEnergy proposes a 1.2 GW CCGT & 70 MW of utility-scale solar in West Virginia. Blackstone commits $1.2bn to develop 600 MW greenfield CCGT in West Virginia. Schneider Electric brings new Energy Management capacity online…

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November 13, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly Update: US Spot HRC Prices Are Edging Higher; Yet Higher Domestic Output & Weak Demand Suggest Typical Seasonal Upside will be “Capped”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Yesterday’s Close. Copper +0.22% to $4.91/lb; aluminum +0.44% to $1.38/lb; nickel -0.57% to $7.71/lb; zinc -0.18% to $1.44/lb; lead +0.48% to $1.12/lb; gold +1.66% to $4,195/oz; silver +3.96% to $53.25/oz;…

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November 13, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): Breaking apart the bookings blip – 3Q Refresh

By Austin Wang

PRIM posted a 0.7x trailing 12 months book-to-bill to overshadow a safe-harbor driven beat-and-raise quarter. On the call, management cited policy uncertainty. Clients we speak with seem to be moving to the sidelines, but we…

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November 12, 2025

CSIQ Q3 Preview 2.0: In the Words of Warren Buffett… “When you See a Fat Pitch, Take a Large Swing”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Investors Positioned the Wrong Way Ahead of CSIQ’s 3Q25 Results? CSIQ has more than doubled (+114%) in the past month, compared to just +4.5% for the S&P 500 – an astonishing move considering that…

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November 10, 2025

RUN Q3 Review: Cash Gen Boosted by Asset Sales; Bull Case Hard to Disprove N-Term; Maintain Neutral Rating w/ Positive Bias

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? All investors seem to care about when it comes to RUN is its whacky “cash generation” results/guidance – i.e., RUN’s definition of cash flow, which includes debt issued and, for the first time…

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November 10, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – Upgrade to BUY: A 2nd Gas Gen Deal Has Hit the F3Q Book, PT to $369

By Austin Wang

Argan’s Gemma Power Systems announced full notice to proceed on an 860MW gas-fired power plant will enter into F3Q26 backlog. Conversations with Gemma’s largest competitors lead us to believe this project is Vistra’s Monahans, Texas…

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November 7, 2025

Picks & Shovels: Further META PPAs, landmark HVDC transmission MSA inked,

By Austin Wang

Meta signed 3 solar PPAs totaling 1GW. Major utility signs a landmark MSA with Quanta to pursue $72bn capital plan heavy on HVDC transmission. PRIM ($126.58, BUY) – Meta inks 1GW solar PPAs (link +…

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November 6, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL): Vertiv to bolt-on Services as competitor enters liquid cooling in $10bn acquisition

By Austin Wang

We review Vertiv’s announcement of a deal for PurgeRite, a services provider specializing in liquid cooling, but our heads are turned more by the strategic implications of Eaton’s (ETN, not rated) agreement to acquire Boyd…

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November 6, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly Update: US Sheet Demand Remains a “Problem” and Industry Insiders Remain Skeptical Headed into 2026E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Yesterday’s Close. Copper +0.24% to $4.84/lb; aluminum +0.89% to $1.37/lb; nickel flat at $7.68/lb; zinc +0.14% to $1.44/lb; lead -0.49% to $1.11/lb; gold +0.22% to $3,988/oz; silver +0.56% to…

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November 4, 2025

First Solar Q3 Review: Despite Troubling 6.6GW Contract Cancellation, the “Story” Remains Too Strong to Ignore; PT to $314.43/shr (+18.3% Upside); Reiterate BUY Rating & Positive Bias

By Gordon L. Johnson II

WHAT’S UP? Last Thursday, FSLR reported 3Q25 results that – by any rational measure – were underwhelming. Revs came in at $1.595bn with GAAP EPS of $4.24 vs. GLJe $1.589bn/$4.26 (Cons. $1.608bn/$4.31) – a miss….

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October 31, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): High Voltage Opportunity Takes Us Higher – 3Q Review

By Austin Wang

GE Vernova published a positive 3Q update and announced plans to acquire the remaining 50% stake in its North America transformer business, a 50/50 joint venture with Xignux, targeting a mid-2026 close. At 13.2x guided…

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October 31, 2025

Argan (AGX, HOLD) – A Tale of Two CCGTs

By Austin Wang

We review the implications of two recent CCGT project awards as Argan announces a major CCGT award while another goes to a consortium formed by generation new entrant Quanta and a revived Argan competitor. Overall,…

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October 30, 2025

Picks & Shovels: GEV books another CCGT; PRIM customer cancels a project

By Austin Wang

GE Vernova secured another 1.2GW of CCGT demand in Indiana. A key customer for Primoris cancels a $300mm BESS facility, possibly over NIMBY opposition. GEV ($575.14, BUY) – GEV inks 1.2GW CCGT in Indiana (link)GE…

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October 29, 2025

Q3 Review: Does Enphase’s 1Q26E Revenue Guidance Underpin Problems Ahead for U.S. Residential Solar Players?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

WHAT’S UP? ENPH just did something unusual for a solar company – it told investors the truth. The company reported Q3 revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $410.4mn/$0.90, handily above Consensus at $365mn/$0.65 (GLJe $362mn/$0.58). The…

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