July 28, 2026
Bottom Line Heading into Enphase’s 2Q26 print, we find ourselves in the increasingly lonely position of being below consensus on essentially every line that matters. We are at $279mn in revenue (Street: $292mn) — a…
July 27, 2026
The July remittance cycle “stabilized” — at June’s deteriorated levels. Cumulative losses on 2024-vintage paper now sit at 40–68% of pool runoff, KBRA just downgraded 20 Sunnova classes in one sweep, ENFIN is one-to-two cycles…
July 24, 2026
Bottom Line CLF reported 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $286mn yesterday morning, ahead of the $260mn the Street was carrying, tripling the 1Q level and marking the company’s best quarter in two years. Free cash flow…
July 23, 2026
Bottom Line The margin call, made in advance. Our preview carried 17.0% gross margin versus the Street’s 19.4% — 240bp below consensus, the widest gap anywhere in our model — built by stripping ~$710mn of…
July 22, 2026
KEY TAKEAWAYS The May 2026 California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) file landed this week, and the headline is ugly enough that the temptation will be to write the obituary. Resist it — for now. Total CA…
July 22, 2026
Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$34,250/ton = $4.85/kg) – down 2.6% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 7/22/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…
July 21, 2026
Bottom Line This morning we hosted Jigar Shah — former head of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office and founder/former CEO of SunEdison — for roughly 45 minutes on the state of U.S….
July 20, 2026
Bottom Line Tesla reports 2Q26 results on Wednesday, July 22, after the close (call: 5:30pm ET). The bulls arrive with a genuinely large number: 480,126 deliveries, +25% yoy and +34% qoq — the best second…
July 20, 2026
A European solar market update and a fireside chat with the head of EU sales for Huawei — battery-price deflation is the bull case, the bear case, and the 2Q26 earnings setup. BOTTOM LINE Europe’s…
July 16, 2026
De-risking the AI trade: the earnings are borrowed, the pricing is collapsing, and the forward curve already knows THE SHORT VERSION We have years learning one lesson over and over: when reported earnings and economic…
July 15, 2026
Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$35,160/ton = $4.99/kg) – down 0.9% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 7/15/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…
July 15, 2026
Channel check: a 49-minute conversation yesterday with Chris Shelton, Fluence’s Head of Investor Relations. Reiterate BUY; YE2026 PT $26. Bottom Line. FLNC is down 25% in the nine trading sessions since our 7/1/26 initiation at…
July 14, 2026
The new reason to own Tesla is that SpaceX buys it — soon. This note is about the word “soon.” Every mechanical step of this deal — the committee, the filing, the vote, Beijing, the…
July 10, 2026
China May installs -91% y/y; Prices Below Cash Cost Across the Chain; Reiterate SELL on JinkoSolar (-39.3% YTD), Canadian Solar (-36.9% YTD) & Daqo New Energy (-58.4% YTD) The Bottom Line. There are slowdowns, and…
July 10, 2026
Sunrun’s AI pilot has no filed economics, no named buyer, and no owner for the GPU decay — but IR is circulating a 1-2 year payback by callback. We value cash flows, not phone calls….