Our Research


March 28, 2024

We Upgrade Cleveland Cliffs to BUY from SELL on: “Trump Put” + “Biden Put” + Rotation Out of Tech into Value = Smooth Sailing Looking Forward

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Cleveland Cliffs Really a BUY Here? With the S&P 500 up +10.0% year-to-date (“YTD”), vs. CLF being up +8.4% over the same timeframe (i.e., CLF has underperformed), not to mention the QQQs being up…

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March 13, 2024

After Recalibrating Our Bottom-Up CSIQ Revenue-Driver Model, Our 2024E Yr-End Price Target Adjusts Lower to $9.10/shr From $16.43/Shr Prior; Are Consensus’ 2024E CSIQ Estimates “Stale”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Higher Interest Rates are Making Canadian Solar’s Ability to Sell its Utility-Scale Solar Projects “Very Difficult”. As a reminder, we note: (1) in 2Q23, CSIQ saw its Recurrent Energy segment deliver $360mn in revenues at…

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March 7, 2024

While the Street’s 2024E Adj.-EPS Estimate for Jinko Solar has “Collapsed” from $9.76/shr Three Months Ago to $5.98/shr Currently, is it Enough?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… is Jinko Solar Still a Good Short, or Has that Train Left the Station? In the analysis that follows, we update our views on global solar wafer/cell/module bellwether Jinko Solar, to include: (a) our…

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March 4, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does our Recent Fire Side Chat w/ the Largest Distributors of Solar Products in N. America & Our One-on-One Conversation w/ a Large On-the-Ground Chinese Solar Investor Suggest “Light at the End of the Tunnel” for Solar Bulls?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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February 29, 2024

If We Told You Sunrun’s Recent Convertible Bond Cost ~15.4% (or 8.14% for the Debt Portion Alone), Funds Which it is Investing into “Assets” that Generate ~3.7% Returns… Would that Make it More Compelling as a Short?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Cost of Sunrun’s Recent $475mn Convertible Bond Issue May Surprise You (link). As a reminder to those who don’t have a doctorate in “bond math”, when an investor buys a convertible bond they are…

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February 20, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly: Is the Fed “Sleepwalking” us into a 10x Worse Recession in 2024 by Using the Wrong Neutral Rate & Ignoring UST Yields (which the bond market takes its cues from) in Favor of its Fed Funds Rate (which few use to price debt – i.e., banks pay 5bps for deposits)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Fed Using the Wrong Neutral Rate, Suggesting they are Sleepwalking the US Economy into a Much “Nastier” Recession than if they Weren’t Constantly Pushing Imminent Rate Cuts as a Certainty? Based on the…

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February 8, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Dec. California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Nov.) Shows Weak US Solar Demand May be Structural; & Update on German/U.K. Solar Installations

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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February 7, 2024

Despite Strength in Solar Stocks Today, Do Enphase’s 4Q23 Results & 1Q24E Guidance Actually Foretell a Coming “Nuclear Winter” for Solar Stocks (i.e., are they still grossly overvalued)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solar Stocks are Roaring Higher Today, Despite Enphase’s 4Q24 Revs. Missing a Q4 Street Est. that Had Been Cut -51.9% Over the Past 6 Months (yes, you heard that right); Does this Make (Any) Sense?…

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February 6, 2024

US HRC Steel Prices Appear Set to Have a “Humpty Alexander Dumpty”-Like Fall… Which is Not Priced Into CLF’s Shares; PT to $11.41/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Looking Past Last Year’s Delayed Recession, the Real Thing Appears Set to Take Hold in 2024. While steel industry CEO’s have maintained a positive bias thru 4Q23 earnings reporting season, contrary to the belief of…

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February 1, 2024

Are Residential Solar Companies Targeting “Low-Income”/Poor Folks w/ Predatory Loans, Actually Increasing the Financial Burden on America’s Most Vulnerable?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Have Constructed a Model Based on a 7.5kW and 3.5kW Residential Rooftop Solar Home System Financed via a Loan in Greenwich, CT, Using NREL’s PVWatts Calculator; Our Findings were Rather Surprising Given the US…

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January 25, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Leading U.S. Solar Parts Distribution Company and Large Chinese Solar Market Investor Provides Insights into SolarEdge’s/Enphase’s & Solar Industry’s 2024E Outlook

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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January 25, 2024

Tesla’s Q4 Results/2024E Guidance Show it’s Nothing More than a Struggling Car Company (not a high-growth tech co.) & Elon Musk is the World’s (most successful) “Sleazy” Used-Car Salesman

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So What Happened, and Why are we Calling the World’s Richest Man a “Sleazy” Used Car Salesman? In this note, we provide what we see as the eight key takeaways from TSLA’s just-reported 4Q23 results,…

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January 23, 2024

Tesla Q4 Earnings Preview: In the Words of B.B. King… “The Thrill is Gone”… for EV Cars That Is; PT to $23.53

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, What’s Up Next for Tesla and Electric Vehicle “Jesus” Elon Musk? With a cult-like following among retail investors (see here), exacerbated by the fact that the arguably most-followed sell-side analyst on TSLA came out…

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January 19, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – November ’23 Census Bureau Data Dump Shows Stubbornly High Solar Module Imports into the US, Implying Demand Bottlenecks in Europe & China in Q4

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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January 17, 2024

What do Last Night’s Tesla European Price Cuts Mean to the “Bottom Line”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… are Last Night’s Tesla Car Price Cuts a Big Deal? In this note, ahead of a full update to our bottom-up TSLA earnings driver model due out later this week, we use a back-of-the-envelope…

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