May 5, 2023
We Believe After Adjusting for Accounting Changes Sunnova has Made, Their Recurring Adjusted EBITDA Looks Much Different. Anyone who knows Sunnova (NOVA; NC), knows they are the kings of newly introduced non-GAAP accounting metrics –…
May 2, 2023
Large Asset Manager Provides Insights into What One Should do If the Fed is Going to Hike 25bps and Signal No Pause Yet this Wednesday. In our discussion with one of the largest U.S. hedge…
April 27, 2023
Are Investors Currently Unaware/Ignoring the “Existential” Risks Facing the Subprime Solar Lending Industry? As detailed in Ex. 1 below, according to bond rating agency Kroll, default rates on solar loans are currently on the upswing….
April 26, 2023
Notwithstanding Speculation about its Early “Demise”, Chinese Data on Weekly Cars Sales is Still Available. Despite claims by many, including GLJ Research, that China was discontinuing its weekly reporting on automobile sales, the data set…
April 25, 2023
Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward May U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -6.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot…
April 19, 2023
After Updating our Bottom-Up Model, we See Risk(s) to Consensus’ 1Q23 Estimates. In what follows, we provide the key assumptions that drive our 1Q23E rev/adj.-EPS ests. of $22.590bn/$0.64 vs. Cons’ $23.365bn/$0.86 ests. (i.e., a miss),…
April 18, 2023
We Expect Stronger Headwinds for SunPower in 1H23E vs. Cons. Expectations; 2H23E Could Also be Plagued with Economic Hardships as a Solar Price War Erupts. On 2/16/23, when SPWR provided 2023E guidance for: (a) 90K-110K…
April 14, 2023
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 10-11), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…
April 12, 2023
Is the Current Labor Market Tighter than Even the “Feel Good Times” Pre-Pandemic? The question on the minds of many is, given an (amazingly) still-tight labor market means consumers are still working/making money, incomes are…
April 4, 2023
The U.S. Treasury’s Cash on Hand is Running Very Low; Should This Scare Equity Bulls? As displayed in Ex. 1 below, following last week’s drain of $76.0bn, the federal government is running dangerously low on…
April 3, 2023
If it Wasn’t Clear Before, it Now is… Tesla Has a Demand Problem. Yesterday, while many of us were catching up on NBA basketball/lawn-work, TSLA reported 1Q23 car deliveries of 422.9K cars (where the sale…
March 30, 2023
In Light of its Sizeable Q4 adj.-GAAP EPS Miss ($0.82A vs. $1.20 est.), is the Street Still Too Optimistic? With global high-efficiency mono PERC module prices already down -8.8% YTD (vs. a full-year 2022 fall…
March 29, 2023
Should One be Buying Steel Stocks (i.e., US Steel and Cleveland Cliffs), or Selling them? In light of our recent double downgrades of both US Steel (X; SELL) and Cleveland Cliffs (CLF; SELL), we wanted…
March 28, 2023
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…
March 28, 2023
We Cut our 1Q23 Delivery Estimate by -5.6% to Reflect Early Start to Demand “Crush” in China + EU. Overnight, we got an update on TSLA’s sale of vehicles in China (where demand fell -15.1%…