Our Research

Bottom Line Enphase delivered the kind of “beat” that does not survive contact with the second page. Headline 1Q26 revenue of $282.9M printed in-line (-0.3% vs. consensus $283.8M), and the optical (non-GAAP) OPEX line drove…

Vol Crush Mechanics Played Out on a Clean Beat — 24 Hours Before the Mag-7 Catalyst Window Opens Spotify (SPOT; NC) reported Q1 results pre-market today and beat consensus on EPS ($3.45 vs. $2.99 est.)…

Expect Electrifications upward revisions to continue as we hear back from our industry contacts. “This is just the beginning” Electrification future firing on 800V cylinders We confirmed with GE Vernova explicitly that the medium-voltage Uninterruptible…

What Changed This Morning Early this morning, Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) reported 1Q26 net income of RMB 2.3B versus Bloomberg consensus of RMB 3.32B — a 31% miss and -40% YoY. Management cites intensifying…

1-Week 100% moneyness implied vol has surged to 12-month extremes in AMZN, META, MSFT, and GOOG ahead of Wednesday night earnings; AAPL follows Thursday. History is unambiguous — vol of this magnitude collapses post-catalyst, and…

Bottom Line China’s National Energy Administration (“NEA”) this morning released Q1 2026 solar PV installation data confirming what we have warned about for the past two quarters: the post-“531” pricing-reform air pocket is here, and…

Bottom Line Tesla reported 1Q26 revenue of $22.387B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41, optically a modest beat. This “beat”, however, was entirely manufactured. Stripping out management-disclosed one-time items — i.e., $230M of auto warranty true-downs…

Executive Summary Tesla reports 1Q26 results tomorrow after the close, and in our view, this print is just as much about the headline numbers as it is the forward commentary. The consensus calls for 1Q26…

We initiate coverage of Legence (LGN) at BUY with a PT of $99 to emphasize Legence’s increasingly pivotal role in addressing integration undercapacity for data center cooling end-customers. Our channel checks on Legence’s large hyperscaler…

We initiate coverage on Everus Construction Group (ECG) at HOLD to reflect a fairly-priced data center opportunity-set at $141PT. Despite management’s prudent execution, limited quantification of pre-fabrication capacity ramp and predominantly cost-plus contracting caps our…

We initiate coverage on Comfort Systems at BUY, as backlog adds and ramping incremental margins emphasize that demand is there for this best-in-class capacity provider. View the next leg of revisions as bookings driven as…

We initiate coverage on FIX (BUY), LGN (BUY), and ECG (HOLD) at a time of pivotal change as data center proliferation promps longtime installation and construction companies to retool towards becoming contract manufacturers. Customer concentration…

Summary We conducted a channel check with a senior executive at APsystems (APS), a tier-one microinverter and module-level power electronics (MLPE) supplier to the US residential solar market. The conversation followed the Chapter 11 bankruptcy…

Investment Summary The Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of Freedom Forever, LLC on April 15, 2026, coupled with the Texas Attorney General fraud investigation into Sunrun and Freedom Forever, LLC (for violations of the Deceptive Trade…

Investment Conclusion The US is Not “Energy Independent”. The widely-promoted narrative that the United States is energy-independent and capable of replacing Persian Gulf crude flows is analytically incorrect and, in our view, is creating dangerous…