Our Research


December 15, 2023

Are the Solar Asset Backed Security (“ABS”) Bonds Issued by the Likes of Sunnova/Sunrun/SunPower the Second-Coming of the Solar YieldCo Ponzi Schemes that Bankrupted Solar Bellwether SunEdison?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Solar ABS Bonds the “Second Coming” of the Solar YieldCo Ponzi Schemes that Effectively Bankrupted SunEdison? SunEdison, the once high-flying solar company seen by many as the solar “savior” of the industry (i.e., it…

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December 13, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – What Does the Nov. Acceleration in Core Services Inflation + The Loosest Financial Conditions, Currently, Since Before the Fed Began Hiking Rates = Mean for Whether Powell will Lean Dovish or Hawkish Today?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How’s Inflation Trending, and Just How Loose Are Financial Conditions at Present Ahead of the Fed’s Rate Decision/Powell’s Testimony Later Today? In this note, in detail, we analyze yesterday’s CPI inflation report, and also look…

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December 10, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Oct.) Paints “Grim” Picture for SEDG/ENPH, Yet Provides “Glimmer of Light” for PV Battery Space, & Update on German, UK, & Italian Monthly Solar Installs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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December 8, 2023

Adjusting Our Bottom-Up Jinko Solar Model for the Recent Global Solar Module Price “Crash”, we Look to Address How Much Incremental Earnings Downside the Company Has?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How’d Jinko Solar Fare in 3Q23? In 3Q23, JKS reported rev/GM%/non-GAAP EPS of $4.4bn/19.3%/$2.55 (Street $4.2bn/14.95%/$1.18). And, on those results 10/30/23, we’ll remind our readers that JKS’ share price surged +10.3% (while the lion’s share…

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December 5, 2023

Is the Recent Surge in US HRC Spot Prices the Biggest “Head Fake” Since, Well, This Time Last Yr (Setting US Steel Stocks up for a Big Early ’24 Fall), or is it the “Real Deal”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Spread Between US HRC Spot Prices and Foreign HRC Spot Prices Has Exploded Higher Recently; is it Justified? As detailed below (Ex. 1), since 10/13/23, US HRC spot prices have surged +$335/s. ton, vs….

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December 1, 2023

Is Wall Street Being Too Generous Modeling SolarEdge’s 2024E-25E Ests., Meaning, Similar to the 3Q23 Earnings “Debacle”, Sharp Forward Earnings Revisions Lower Are Fated?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Houston, We Have a Problem. As a reminder, when SEDG reported 3Q23 results a few weeks back, despite negatively preannouncing days prior (due to order delays/cancellations as customers double/triple ordered in 2022, primarily in Europe),…

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November 19, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Is the Fed About to, De Facto, Use the Remaining ~$936bn in Reverse Repo Facility Reserves to “Spray” Stocks w/ Fresh-Cash Through (at least) Mar. 2024?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, we detail why, with last week’s release of the US Treasury’s latest Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QTR”), the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury, through 1Q24E, will likely…

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November 16, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Is the Next “Nasty” Leg Lower for Sunrun/Sunnova/Sunpower Imminent, is Jinko Solar’s Stock Being “Talked” Higher Right Ahead of Insider Selling, & Fireside Chat w/ China Solar Market Expert(s) on State of EU Solar Inventory

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, below we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 15-16), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in…

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November 8, 2023

Fireside Chat w/ Leading U.S. Solar Parts Distribution Company and U.S. MLPE Inverter Leader Provide Further Insights into SolarEdge’s/Enphase’s N-Term Outlook

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, following, what we see as incremental discussions we held this week with: (a) the leading distributor of solar parts in the U.S., as well as (b) the world’s leading multi-platform…

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November 3, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Sep.) Reveals “Shocking” Share Shifts; & Fireside Chat w/ China Solar Market Expert Sheds Light on What to Expect in the World’s Largest Market for Solar Demand N-Term

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 12-13), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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November 2, 2023

Do Sunrun’s Q3 Results Suggest, Similar to the Mortgage Lenders in 2Q08, the “Solar Lenders” Could be Entering the “Beginning Innings” of the End-Game?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, How did Sunrun Fare in Q3? In this note, we provide our quick thoughts on Sunrun’s 3Q23 results reported last night, where the company: (a) saw -$804.7mn in free-cash-flow burn, despite cutting its staff…

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November 2, 2023

If you Think SolarEdge is Bad Now… in the Famous Words of Canadian Rock Band Bachman… “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge Falls as it Guides to 4Q23E non-GAAP (which is BS as stock comp counts) Operating Income Loss of -$106.9mn (vs. Street’s $11.3mn GAAP Est.). As of the writing of this note (i.e., 3:17am EST),…

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October 31, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Spiking “Core” Services Inflation, or the Fed’s Key Measuring Stick (i.e., PCE) For Prices + the Return of the “Bond Vigilantes” in the U.S. = Big Trouble Ahead

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? We remind our readers that “core services” PCE inflation is what Fed chair Jerome Powell has been harping about in recent talks, with a laser focus on “core services PCE excluding housing” as…

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October 23, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks in the Midst of a “Humpty Dumpty”-Like Fall & Do “Real” Retail Sales Foretell Macro Pain Ahead?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? As a follow-up to our 10/9/23 note titled “GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the Next Great Shorts?“, since which the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF has traded down -6.4%…

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October 19, 2023

Our Key Takeaways from Tesla’s 3Q23 Results Where Auto Gross Margins (ex. Credits) Came in at 16.3%, or -172bps Below Consensus, & E. Musk Said his Cars are Still “Too Expensive”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So How Did Tesla’s 3Q23 Results Come in vs. the Street’s Drastically Reduced Estimates? Last night, TSLA reported auto revs/auto-gross-margins (excl. credits) of $19.6bn/16.3%, missing Cons.’ $20.9bn/18.02% ests. by -6.44% and -172bps, respectively (we focus…

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