Our Research


November 16, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Is the Next “Nasty” Leg Lower for Sunrun/Sunnova/Sunpower Imminent, is Jinko Solar’s Stock Being “Talked” Higher Right Ahead of Insider Selling, & Fireside Chat w/ China Solar Market Expert(s) on State of EU Solar Inventory

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, below we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 15-16), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in…

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November 8, 2023

Fireside Chat w/ Leading U.S. Solar Parts Distribution Company and U.S. MLPE Inverter Leader Provide Further Insights into SolarEdge’s/Enphase’s N-Term Outlook

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, following, what we see as incremental discussions we held this week with: (a) the leading distributor of solar parts in the U.S., as well as (b) the world’s leading multi-platform…

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November 3, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Sep.) Reveals “Shocking” Share Shifts; & Fireside Chat w/ China Solar Market Expert Sheds Light on What to Expect in the World’s Largest Market for Solar Demand N-Term

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 12-13), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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November 2, 2023

Do Sunrun’s Q3 Results Suggest, Similar to the Mortgage Lenders in 2Q08, the “Solar Lenders” Could be Entering the “Beginning Innings” of the End-Game?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, How did Sunrun Fare in Q3? In this note, we provide our quick thoughts on Sunrun’s 3Q23 results reported last night, where the company: (a) saw -$804.7mn in free-cash-flow burn, despite cutting its staff…

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November 2, 2023

If you Think SolarEdge is Bad Now… in the Famous Words of Canadian Rock Band Bachman… “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge Falls as it Guides to 4Q23E non-GAAP (which is BS as stock comp counts) Operating Income Loss of -$106.9mn (vs. Street’s $11.3mn GAAP Est.). As of the writing of this note (i.e., 3:17am EST),…

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October 31, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Spiking “Core” Services Inflation, or the Fed’s Key Measuring Stick (i.e., PCE) For Prices + the Return of the “Bond Vigilantes” in the U.S. = Big Trouble Ahead

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? We remind our readers that “core services” PCE inflation is what Fed chair Jerome Powell has been harping about in recent talks, with a laser focus on “core services PCE excluding housing” as…

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October 23, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks in the Midst of a “Humpty Dumpty”-Like Fall & Do “Real” Retail Sales Foretell Macro Pain Ahead?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? As a follow-up to our 10/9/23 note titled “GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the Next Great Shorts?“, since which the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF has traded down -6.4%…

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October 19, 2023

Our Key Takeaways from Tesla’s 3Q23 Results Where Auto Gross Margins (ex. Credits) Came in at 16.3%, or -172bps Below Consensus, & E. Musk Said his Cars are Still “Too Expensive”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So How Did Tesla’s 3Q23 Results Come in vs. the Street’s Drastically Reduced Estimates? Last night, TSLA reported auto revs/auto-gross-margins (excl. credits) of $19.6bn/16.3%, missing Cons.’ $20.9bn/18.02% ests. by -6.44% and -172bps, respectively (we focus…

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October 17, 2023

Q3 Earnings Preview: Our Updated Tesla “Bottoms-Up” Earnings Driver Model Points to Misses Across the Board Tomorrow (i.e., Revs/Margins/Non-GAAP EPS Likely Set to Disappoint)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, we provide updates on: (a) our bottoms-up earnings driver model for TSLA, to include our updated 3Q23E, 2023E, 2024E, and 2025E earnings estimates, (b) wait times for new TSLA orders…

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October 16, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Both U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) & Census Bureau Data Show U.S. Cell/Module Imports on the Rise; What’s this Mean for ASPs & Q3 Cell Vendor Revs/EPS?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 4-5), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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October 9, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the “Next Great Short”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, which is a follow-up to our 8/30/23 GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly, where we asked: “Is it Time to Fade the Homebuilder Stocks“, we look at: (a) wage growth in the U.S.,…

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October 4, 2023

Fireside Chat w/ Inverter Market Expert: Is SolarEdge Looking at an Armageddon-Like Situation w/ Respect to its Future Sales/Margins & are Bulls “Asleep at the Wheel” as it Relates to the Potential Risk Here?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s the Latest on the US Inverter Market? Last night, after waiting for weeks for a response, one of our oldest US solar inverter contacts (we’ve been in touch with this individual since 2008), who…

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October 2, 2023

Tesla and the “Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day” Q3 Delivery Result – and No, The Miss is Not the Result of Line “Upgrades”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Reports Q3 Production/Deliveries of 430.488K/435.059K, Missing the Cons’ est. of 461.992K/456.722K by a Mile. In this note, we discuss our views on TSLA’s just-reported 3Q23 production/delivery ests., which we previewed 9/18/23 when we said…

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September 28, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – US Solar Installations are Collapsing + US Solar Cell/Module Imports are Surging = Pending “Nightmare Before Christmas” for US Cell & Module Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 4-5), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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September 25, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Recently Updated California Solar Initiative Data Dump Show SolarEdge is in “Big” Trouble, Fireside Chat w/ US Solar Distribution Bellwether (is the “Solar Bear Market” about to Die?), & Does Aug. German Solar Installation Data Suggest Q3 Will “Frighten” the Solar Bulls?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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