Our Research


October 17, 2023

Q3 Earnings Preview: Our Updated Tesla “Bottoms-Up” Earnings Driver Model Points to Misses Across the Board Tomorrow (i.e., Revs/Margins/Non-GAAP EPS Likely Set to Disappoint)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, we provide updates on: (a) our bottoms-up earnings driver model for TSLA, to include our updated 3Q23E, 2023E, 2024E, and 2025E earnings estimates, (b) wait times for new TSLA orders…

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October 16, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Both U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) & Census Bureau Data Show U.S. Cell/Module Imports on the Rise; What’s this Mean for ASPs & Q3 Cell Vendor Revs/EPS?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 4-5), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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October 9, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the “Next Great Short”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, which is a follow-up to our 8/30/23 GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly, where we asked: “Is it Time to Fade the Homebuilder Stocks“, we look at: (a) wage growth in the U.S.,…

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October 4, 2023

Fireside Chat w/ Inverter Market Expert: Is SolarEdge Looking at an Armageddon-Like Situation w/ Respect to its Future Sales/Margins & are Bulls “Asleep at the Wheel” as it Relates to the Potential Risk Here?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s the Latest on the US Inverter Market? Last night, after waiting for weeks for a response, one of our oldest US solar inverter contacts (we’ve been in touch with this individual since 2008), who…

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October 2, 2023

Tesla and the “Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day” Q3 Delivery Result – and No, The Miss is Not the Result of Line “Upgrades”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Reports Q3 Production/Deliveries of 430.488K/435.059K, Missing the Cons’ est. of 461.992K/456.722K by a Mile. In this note, we discuss our views on TSLA’s just-reported 3Q23 production/delivery ests., which we previewed 9/18/23 when we said…

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September 28, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – US Solar Installations are Collapsing + US Solar Cell/Module Imports are Surging = Pending “Nightmare Before Christmas” for US Cell & Module Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 4-5), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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September 25, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Recently Updated California Solar Initiative Data Dump Show SolarEdge is in “Big” Trouble, Fireside Chat w/ US Solar Distribution Bellwether (is the “Solar Bear Market” about to Die?), & Does Aug. German Solar Installation Data Suggest Q3 Will “Frighten” the Solar Bulls?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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September 18, 2023

Tesla Can No Longer Grow at its 50%/yr “Mirage” Without a Much Cheaper Car it Won’t Have for Yrs in a Best-Case Scenario & Q3 Results Shaping up to be Big Disappointment

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Has a Q3 Demand and Earnings Problem that Many Seem to Want to Ignore (for now). In this note, in addition to updating our bottom-up earnings driver model for TSLA’s 2023E and 2024E-25E earnings…

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September 12, 2023

Is the Uranium Market in the Beginning Innings of a Second “EV-Like” Melt-Up, which is Misunderstood by the Masses?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note we update our view on both Cameco Corp., and the broader Uranium space, where the most significant takeaways are: (a) a revamp of our global supply/demand model framework, (b) our…

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September 12, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Update From Solar Power International Conference in Vegas: Day 1

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 30, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chats w/ Large U.S. Distributor & Leading Chinese Inverter Supplier Shed Light on What to Expect Headed into Q3 Earnings for SEDG/ENPH/JKS/CSIQ/RUN/etc.

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 30, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With Home Sales Plunging + Cash Buyers Disappearing + Supply Rising = Is It Time to “Fade” the Homebuilder Stocks, Which Have Materially Outperformed YTD?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the US Housing Market Facing a Serious Problem N-Term (When Looking at the Host of Recently Available Data)? The SPDR S&P Homebuilder Index (XHB; NC) is up +36.1% YTD, significantly outperforming even the S&P…

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August 22, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative June Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Attach Rates Balanced by “Explosion” in Installs; Yet, Subdued Q3 Guide from CSIQ/SEDG/ENPH Suggests July Data Could Disappoint

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 14, 2023

US Steel Rejects Cleveland Cliffs’ Takeover Offer After the Latter Refuses to Engage in the Necessary/Customary Processes to Assess Valuation & Regulatory Issues – GLJ’s Take

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cliff’s Offers to Pay a 42% Premium for US Steel, Effectively Crediting the Company for its “Best for All®” Strategy Before it’s Been Fully Executed (a huge plus for US Steel’s shareholders). Last night, we…

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August 11, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With CPI Accelerating YoY, Core Services CPI Accelerating MoM, & Durable Goods Prices Normalizing at “Scary” High Levels, is the “Disinflation” Bull Thesis in Trouble?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Take on the July CPI Report. In this note, we provide our take on the July CPI report. That is, with Consensus now pricing in the first rate hike as soon as the 3/20/24…

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