Our Research


September 18, 2023

Tesla Can No Longer Grow at its 50%/yr “Mirage” Without a Much Cheaper Car it Won’t Have for Yrs in a Best-Case Scenario & Q3 Results Shaping up to be Big Disappointment

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Has a Q3 Demand and Earnings Problem that Many Seem to Want to Ignore (for now). In this note, in addition to updating our bottom-up earnings driver model for TSLA’s 2023E and 2024E-25E earnings…

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September 12, 2023

Is the Uranium Market in the Beginning Innings of a Second “EV-Like” Melt-Up, which is Misunderstood by the Masses?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note we update our view on both Cameco Corp., and the broader Uranium space, where the most significant takeaways are: (a) a revamp of our global supply/demand model framework, (b) our…

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September 12, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Update From Solar Power International Conference in Vegas: Day 1

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 30, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chats w/ Large U.S. Distributor & Leading Chinese Inverter Supplier Shed Light on What to Expect Headed into Q3 Earnings for SEDG/ENPH/JKS/CSIQ/RUN/etc.

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 30, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With Home Sales Plunging + Cash Buyers Disappearing + Supply Rising = Is It Time to “Fade” the Homebuilder Stocks, Which Have Materially Outperformed YTD?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the US Housing Market Facing a Serious Problem N-Term (When Looking at the Host of Recently Available Data)? The SPDR S&P Homebuilder Index (XHB; NC) is up +36.1% YTD, significantly outperforming even the S&P…

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August 22, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative June Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Attach Rates Balanced by “Explosion” in Installs; Yet, Subdued Q3 Guide from CSIQ/SEDG/ENPH Suggests July Data Could Disappoint

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 14, 2023

US Steel Rejects Cleveland Cliffs’ Takeover Offer After the Latter Refuses to Engage in the Necessary/Customary Processes to Assess Valuation & Regulatory Issues – GLJ’s Take

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cliff’s Offers to Pay a 42% Premium for US Steel, Effectively Crediting the Company for its “Best for All®” Strategy Before it’s Been Fully Executed (a huge plus for US Steel’s shareholders). Last night, we…

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August 11, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With CPI Accelerating YoY, Core Services CPI Accelerating MoM, & Durable Goods Prices Normalizing at “Scary” High Levels, is the “Disinflation” Bull Thesis in Trouble?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Take on the July CPI Report. In this note, we provide our take on the July CPI report. That is, with Consensus now pricing in the first rate hike as soon as the 3/20/24…

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August 10, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat(s) w/ Head of Sales for a Large U.S. Solar Parts Distributor (i.e., are ENPH and SEDG Facing an “Existential” Event?) and a Large Chinese Solar Investment Fund Based in Hong Kong (i.e., is the EU Solar Market Faring Worse than U.S. Investors Realize?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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August 8, 2023

Our Take on Tesla Announcing its 4th CFO in 6 Years (or 3rd in 4 Years), its New CFO (who was the Top Accountant at SolarCity when the Company was Credibly Alleged to have Engaged in Tax Fraud), & This Week’s China Sales

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla’s CFO of Four Years, Announces his Immediate/Unexpected Departure Effective 8/4/23. Yesterday we learned that TSLA’s “young” 39yr old CFO decided to leave the company, unexpectedly (given, as recently as May, according to…

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August 7, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Head of Sales for Large Global Inverter Player & Our Take on the Sudden Departure of Sunrun’s Chief Accounting Officer Following Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 7-8), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in…

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August 2, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Have You Heard of the Fed’s ‘Other Credit Extensions’ (“OCE”) Emergency Lending Facility & is It Possible the Repayment of OCE Loans this Year Will Create “Chaos” in US Stock Market(s)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In this Note, We Discuss What Could Prove to be a Mar. 2020-Like Black Swan in 3Q23/4Q23. Is there a black swan coming this year that’s currently flying under the radar? In this note, we…

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July 27, 2023

Is Sunnova Copying the Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model of Borrowing Short at a Higher Rate than it’s Lending Long, Meaning “Catastrophe” is Only a Matter of Time?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fundamental Question Sunnova Investors Must Ask the Company/Themselves is Simple: “Why Does it Appear Sunnova is Copying the Failed Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model”. While we get into NOVA’s dismal results in the…

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July 26, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – 20-City Case Shiller Home Price Index Shows 3rd Consecutive Year-over-Year Price Drop & Homebuyer DTI Ratios Surge; is “Housing Bubble 2.0” at Risk of Popping

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, How’s the Housing Market Shaping Up? In this note, we look at: (a) the recent Case-Shiller National Home Price Index data reported yesterday, as well as (b) US homebuyer debt-to-income ratios (“DTIs”) and downpayment…

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July 20, 2023

Q2 Results Show Tesla is Simply a “Car Company” Trading at 70x Earnings when Other “Car Companies” Trade at 6x-8x Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Were Tesla’s “Other Income” Line Flat QoQ, EPS Would have Missed by “a Mile” (i.e., the beat came, entirely, from a one-time item). In 2021-22, TSLA benefitted from both an automotive parts shortage and automobile…

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