Industry Notes


May 18, 2023

GLJ Research Macro Update – What if we Told you We had a “Magical Elixir” that Could Help you Outperform Tech Stocks (i.e., the QQQs) Until the Debt Ceiling was Resolved?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Invesco QQQ Index and the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) Balance Have Tracked Each Other Quite Closely Since 11/1/22. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s TGA account balance (i.e., the “piggy…

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May 10, 2023

GLJ Metals & Mining Weekly – J. Powell’s Claim Red-Hot Rent CPI Will Simply “Vanish” Appears Wishful Based on Comments from Landlords (Even for April)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Comments from Landlords and Tenants Suggest J. Powell’s Prediction “Sizzling” Rent CPI Inflation will Vanish in 2H23 May Prove Aspirational. Rather it’s comments from the largest publicly-traded landlords of single-family homes in the US, or…

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May 5, 2023

What if We Told You Instead of Growing +39% in ’22, Sunnova’s Recurring EBITDA Fell -47%, & Instead of Coming in at +$14.6mn in 1Q23, its Recurring EBITDA was Actually -$17.4mn (i.e., its Core Biz is Currently “Hemorrhaging” Cash)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Believe After Adjusting for Accounting Changes Sunnova has Made, Their Recurring Adjusted EBITDA Looks Much Different. Anyone who knows Sunnova (NOVA; NC), knows they are the kings of newly introduced non-GAAP accounting metrics –…

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May 2, 2023

GLJ Inflation Watch Update – Sticky Inflation is Becoming Entrenched: Core PCE Price Index Stubbornly High at ~5% for 6 Months; Is the Fed Failing, Meaning a Hawkish +25bps/No Pause is on Deck for this Wednesday’s Fed Meeting?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Large Asset Manager Provides Insights into What One Should do If the Fed is Going to Hike 25bps and Signal No Pause Yet this Wednesday. In our discussion with one of the largest U.S. hedge…

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April 25, 2023

Fireside Chat with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward May U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -6.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot…

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April 14, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – February 2023 California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump & “Fire Side Chat” with the Head of Sales for Leading Global Chinese Inverter Supplier (i.e., have inverter margins, globally, peaked?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 10-11), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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April 12, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Is The Fed Failing to Cool the Labor Market, Meaning Inflation is Becoming Entrenched (i.e., the Fed’s “worst nightmare”)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Current Labor Market Tighter than Even the “Feel Good Times” Pre-Pandemic? The question on the minds of many is, given an (amazingly) still-tight labor market means consumers are still working/making money, incomes are…

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April 4, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Is the S&P 500 Index About to Get Hit with a “Mike Tyson Uppercut” in the Form of a U.S. Debt Ceiling Agreement?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The U.S. Treasury’s Cash on Hand is Running Very Low; Should This Scare Equity Bulls? As displayed in Ex. 1 below, following last week’s drain of $76.0bn, the federal government is running dangerously low on…

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March 29, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Are There Storm Clouds Ahead in “U.S. Steelville”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Should One be Buying Steel Stocks (i.e., US Steel and Cleveland Cliffs), or Selling them? In light of our recent double downgrades of both US Steel (X; SELL) and Cleveland Cliffs (CLF; SELL), we wanted…

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March 28, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – Fire Side Chat w/ Top U.S. Solar Distribution “Behemoth” Sheds Light on Current State of U.S. Solar Market Ahead of Q1 Results

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

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March 22, 2023

Weekly Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/22/23) – GE Prices Flat Again; US HRC Futures Move (Slightly) Lower, Chinese Rebar Prices Now -3.3% Off Recent Highs (Is the “Grand Reopening” Fizzling?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices “Quiet” this Week After Big Declines; US HRC Prices Appear to be Stabilizing. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite…

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March 22, 2023

Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/22/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Crushed” Again; Module Prices Join in the Price Recession

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/22/23 – PVInsights. “Surging supply keep weakening polysilicon and solar modules. Polysilicon prices weakened this week as suppliers worried about a potential escalation of inventories amid rising supply, and Chinese buyers stayed their expectation…

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March 20, 2023

GLJ Research Updated Solar Industry Pitch Book – Updated 2023E Solar Thesis

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Have Updated our 35-Page Solar Deck. In short, the core themes detailed in our updated solar pitch book include: (1) our view that pol-Si will return to oversupply this year, crashing prices back down…

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March 19, 2023

Were You Aware that Sunnova is, as Per a 3/16/23 8-K Filing, Seeking a De Facto $3.3bn US Government Funded Bailout (and Their General Counsel Has Retired Effective Immediately)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Skimming Sunnova’s 8-K Filings this Morning, we Made a Significant Discovery. Skimming NOVA’s website today, we found a groundbreaking 8-K filing that seems to be flying under the radar. That is, we found that: (a)…

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March 15, 2023

Weekly Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/15/23) – Prices Flat Across the Board; US HRC Futures Stabilize, While US Rebar Prices Edge Lower

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices “Quiet” this Week After Big Declines; US HRC Prices Appear to be Stabilizing. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite…

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