Our Research

Things Would Be Even Worse Without TSLA’s 1.99% 6yr APR Financing Offer in U.S./Canada. Based on the latest China data from early this morning (discussed below), updates from the 6 countries that report daily sales…

Things Would Be Even Worse Without TSLA’s 1.99% 6yr APR Financing Offer in U.S./Canada. Based on the latest China data from early this morning (discussed below), updates from the 6 countries that report daily sales…

So, Where Do We Stand on Fortescue and How Did its FY24 Results Impact our Outlook? Our SELL rating on FMG has been predicated on our negative 2024E-25E outlook for iron ore prices, as well…

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China for mono-grade…

What Are Our European “On-the-Ground” Contacts Saying About the State of Solar Demand in Europe? Following comments from our meetings at RE+ in Anaheim, CA this week (link), we had the opportunity to catch up…

We Acknowledge Enphase has Entered its Recovery Phase… But Does that Make it a BUY? Enphase reported 2Q24 sales of $303.5mn, missing Consensus’ est. of $309.9mn, but guided 3Q24E to $390mn (at the mid-point), suggesting…

U.S. Steel’s Stock Price has Come Down a Lot, but Does that Create a Buying Opportunity? Since peaking at $49.59/shr 12/18/23, U.S. Steel’s (X; BUY) shares have fell -36.9% vs. the S&P 500 being up…

California is Considering Retroactively Cutting NEM 1.0 and 2.0 Benefits… But Why? As seen here, California is currently considering shifting NEM 1.0 and 2.0 customers, who pay ~2c/kWh for power, to the less advantageous NEM…

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

Is it Time to “Re-Up” the Nuclear Bull Thesis? In this note, we analyze the seasonality associated with the monthly purchase of U3O8 (in both volume and number of transactions, in our attempt to address…

Does the Recent Sale of Resi Solar Loans Suggest NOVA is “Hiding” an Imminent ~$1.6bn Impairment Charge, Does SPWR’s Bankruptcy Pose an Existential Threat to RUN/NOVA, & Why Have 3 U.S. Gov’t Agencies Opened an…

Sunnova is in Big Trouble, No Matter What its “Fictional” Non-GAAP Adj.-EBITDA Says (a number so devoid of actual expenses, it more closely resembles revenue – i.e., in 2Q24, Sunnova’s non-GAAP adj.-EBITDA came in at…

Janet Yellen is Always Good For the U.S. Stock Market… Right… Right? In the analysis the follows, we provide our take on Janet Yellen’s announcement around the U.S. Treasury’s estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for…

Our Checks Suggests Investors Remain Excited About Canadian Solar’s Ability to Sell its Utility-Scale Solar Pipeline. In recent discussions with solar investors, we’ve learned that many feel CSIQ’s 5.0GW of Recurrent Energy solar project development…

Admittedly, 2Q24E is Not an Easy Quarter to Model for Tesla. In the below, we consider various moving parts in TSLA’s 2Q24E model, including: (a) 57.146K more cars sold in 2Q24E QoQ (a positive), (b)…