Our Research


September 6, 2024

Is The State of California “Brewing” Up a Threat that Could Prove Existential for the Residential Rooftop Solar Industry… Unbeknownst to Solar Stock/ABS Investors?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California is Considering Retroactively Cutting NEM 1.0 and 2.0 Benefits… But Why? As seen here, California is currently considering shifting NEM 1.0 and 2.0 customers, who pay ~2c/kWh for power, to the less advantageous NEM…

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August 29, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – May ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Takeaways from “Fireside Chat” w/ Large US Solar Parts Distributor, & Is California About to Hit NEM 1.0 & 2.0 Customers w/ Retroactive Net Metering Cuts?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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August 14, 2024

Is Another “Uranium Bull Run” Fated… Sooner, Even, Than Many Realize?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is it Time to “Re-Up” the Nuclear Bull Thesis? In this note, we analyze the seasonality associated with the monthly purchase of U3O8 (in both volume and number of transactions, in our attempt to address…

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August 8, 2024

The “Unveiling” of the Sunrun & Sunnova O&M Fraud & Why Sunpower’s Bankruptcy (Potentially) Poses an Existential Threat the Resi Solar Space

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Does the Recent Sale of Resi Solar Loans Suggest NOVA is “Hiding” an Imminent ~$1.6bn Impairment Charge, Does SPWR’s Bankruptcy Pose an Existential Threat to RUN/NOVA, & Why Have 3 U.S. Gov’t Agencies Opened an…

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August 1, 2024

2Q24 Review: Sunnova’s Very Existence Appears to be a Byproduct of its Willingness to (More) Aggressively Inflate the Value of Its Systems in Order to Collect U.S. Tax Credits (This is Not a Real/Sustainable Biz Model)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunnova is in Big Trouble, No Matter What its “Fictional” Non-GAAP Adj.-EBITDA Says (a number so devoid of actual expenses, it more closely resembles revenue – i.e., in 2Q24, Sunnova’s non-GAAP adj.-EBITDA came in at…

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July 30, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly: J. Yellen Surprises the Market with Yesterday’s 3:00pm EST “Relatively” Hawkish Borrowing Estimates Publication; the Real Fireworks, However, Start at 8:30am EST Tomorrow w/ the Official QRA Details

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Janet Yellen is Always Good For the U.S. Stock Market… Right… Right? In the analysis the follows, we provide our take on Janet Yellen’s announcement around the U.S. Treasury’s estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for…

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July 30, 2024

After Recalibrating Our Bottom-Up CSIQ Revenue-Driver Model, Our 2024E Yr-End Price Target Adjusts Higher to $12.28/shr From $9.10/shr Prior; Are Consensus’ 2024E CSIQ Estimates “Stale”? Maintain SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Checks Suggests Investors Remain Excited About Canadian Solar’s Ability to Sell its Utility-Scale Solar Pipeline. In recent discussions with solar investors, we’ve learned that many feel CSIQ’s 5.0GW of Recurrent Energy solar project development…

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July 23, 2024

Tesla 2Q24E Earnings Preview – Numerous Puts/Takes this Quarter (Rate Buy Downs + Restructuring Costs + Stronger Energy Profit + Less Chinese Exports + etc.) Make It Hard, But We Expect a “Modest” Earnings Miss

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Admittedly, 2Q24E is Not an Easy Quarter to Model for Tesla. In the below, we consider various moving parts in TSLA’s 2Q24E model, including: (a) 57.146K more cars sold in 2Q24E QoQ (a positive), (b)…

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July 17, 2024

It Looks Like the Sun is Setting on SunPower

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Wow… That Can’t be Good. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide a letter sent by SunPower (SPWR; SELL) to its customers around 1:39pm EST today. In what follows, we provide our take. SunPower is No…

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July 15, 2024

SunPower Issues What We See as Among the Most “Shockingly Bad” 8-K Disclosures We’ve Seen in our ~22yrs Analyzing Stocks (yet, it seems, NO ONE CARES [for now])

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Hold On… Come Again? Last Friday, unbeknownst to many (it seems), SPWR (link) filed an amendment to its July 3rd 8-K, which provided additional information, this time from Ernst & Young (“EY”). more specifically, in…

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July 15, 2024

How Does Our Bridge to Both Tesla’s 2Q24E EPS and Free-Cash-Flow Compare to the Current Consensus Estimates?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Does Our Bridge to Tesla’s 2Q24E EPS and Free-Cash-Flow Say vs. the Current Consensus Estimates? In the below, we provide our bridge to TSLA’s 2Q24E GAAP/non-GAAP EPS and free-cash-flow (“FCF”) when considering: (a) TSLA’s…

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July 12, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – U.S. Module Prices Collapsed this Week; &, Are the 2H24E Solar Bulls Missing a “Big Trouble in Little Europe” Set-Up Into Q2 Earnings?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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July 11, 2024

Is Cleveland-Cliffs Offering HRC Steel for Under $600/ton to Fill its Order Books… Setting the Stage for a N-Term Price Hike Announcement?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Checks Suggest Cleveland Cliffs May be Trying to Stop the Bleeding of Hot-Rolled-Coil Prices Falling. In checks we conducted yesterday, we were informed that CLF is alleged to be offering a significant baseload of…

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July 8, 2024

SunPower’s “Surreptitious” 8-K Released at 5pm EST After the Markets Closed on July 3rd Confirms our Worst Fears; Reiterate SELL & Subdued Outlook

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SunPower Releases “Horror Show” of an 8-K, After the Markets Closed July 3rd at 5pm EST (almost as if to “sneak” it by investors ahead of a national U.S. holiday). In short, another day, another…

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July 3, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – April ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Update on European Solar Markets (i.e., Germany + Italy + U.K. + Spain + Netherlands + France)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 23-24), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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