Our Research


July 18, 2023

2Q23 Earnings Preview: “Big Trouble in Little China” – Is the Buyside Missing 2H23 Problems in the World’s Largest Solar Market?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is 2H23E Setting Up as Among the Best Opportunities in Years to Short Solar Stocks (and Particularly the “Parts Makers”)? In the analysis that follows, we attempt to address the question posed above, as well…

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July 17, 2023

2Q23 Earnings Preview – We Expect Largely Inline Q2 Results, But Does the Auto Supply Chain “Freeing Up” Mean Tesla’s Margins Are Structurally (a lot) Lower Than Consensus is Currently Modeling?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Extent of the Q2 Price Cut will Determine Tesla’s Fate Regarding a 2Q23 “Modest” Miss and/or “Huge” Miss. In this note we detail while we expect TSLA’s 2Q23E revs/EPS to come in at $24.4bn/$0.80…

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July 11, 2023

U.S. Steel Q2 Earnings Preview – Is “Big Trouble in Little China” Coming Home to Roost in the U.S.?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Expect U.S. Steel to Post a (very) Modest Miss in Q2, Followed by a More Substantial Miss in 2H23. In the analysis that follows, we detail why we believe X’s Q2 numbers will be…

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July 7, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – “Mr. Market” is Telling Us: Houston, We Have a “Liquidity” Problem

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update on Global Liquidity from the Ten Central Banks we Track as well as a Steel Industry “Check-Up”. In this note, we look at the current liquidity situation at the world’s largest ten Central Banks…

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July 6, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Apr/May Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Installs/Attach Rates & Sharp Fall in Solar Installs; Are Solar Bulls Underestimating the Negative Effects from NEM 3.0 & Collapse in Nat. Gas Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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June 30, 2023

SolarEdge’s “Milk” is Souring… But it Hasn’t Yet Gone Fully Bad (i.e., We Believe Cons. has Set the 2Q23E Hurdle Low, After Which Things Become Much More Difficult)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge is Still Seen as Being in the Driver’s Seat as it Relates to the Global Solar Inverter Arms Race, a Thesis We Think Will Change (to the Downside) in 2H23. In this note, we…

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June 30, 2023

Conn. Utility Eversource Cuts Electricity Prices -43% Effective 7/1 as SoCal Edison/PG&E See their Nat Gas Costs Fall -74%/-63% 2H22-to-6/28; Are the Risks to RUN’s/NOVA’s/SPWR’s “Subscriber Values” Grossly Misunderstood?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We See Outsized Risk to the “Cockamamie” 20yr DCF Calculations, Known to Many as “Net Subscriber Value”, Sunrun, Sunnova, & Sunpower (as well as our Sell-Side Peers) Use to Justify Their Valuations. First off, why…

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June 22, 2023

After Updating Our Bottom-Up Daqo Model to Reflect the -66% YTD Drop in Poly-Si Prices, We Believe Consensus has Some “Explaining” to Do; Our 2023E Yr-End PT Drops to $19.66/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Consensus Seems to Be Asleep at the Wheel w/ Respect to Daqo’s 2023E EPS Estimate. Despite the fact that mono poly-Si prices are down -76.7% YoY as of 6/21/23 (Ex. 1), the Consensus 2023E EPS…

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June 16, 2023

Fireside Chat 2.0 with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward June U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -1.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot HRC…

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June 16, 2023

Fireside Chat 2.0 with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward June U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -1.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot HRC…

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June 13, 2023

Canadian Solar has Outperformed its Chinese Solar Module Peers; will It Continue to “Shine”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Canadian Solar Has Been a Significant Outperformer Over the TTM. Over the past year (Ex. 1), CSIQ’s shares are up +24.5%, vs. -19.7% for Jinko Solar Co. Ltd., -54.5% for Longi Green Energy Tech. Co….

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June 12, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Liquidity Check-In, May Rental Inflation Update (has the Fed “Licked” Rent Inflation), & Steel Market Chart Refresh

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So How are Things Trending when Looking at Liquidity, Rent Inflation, and Steel Market Data? In this note, we provide a check-in on: (a) the state of U.S. liquidity when looking at a combination of…

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June 9, 2023

Four Separate “Fire Side” Chats w/ Contacts in China, the EU (Ahead of the SNEC Conf. in Munich), & the U.S. Shed Light on State of Solar Industry

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Burning the Midnight Oil Last Night Provided us an Opportunity to Catch up with Long-Time Contacts in China and the EU, as Well as the U.S. In this note, we provide four separate “fire side”…

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June 8, 2023

Did You Know Sunrun’s Head of Project Finance Left the Company (Prior to the Recent Unexpected Departure of the Company’s Founder)? Also, Below, we Detail a Fireside Chat we had Today w/ an Industry Veteran That Suggests Bulls May be Underestimating NEM 3.0 Impact on California

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Sunrun Lose its Head of Project Financing Unbeknownst to Many (Followed by the Recent Sudden Departure of its co-Founder)? In this note, we look to address that question, while also providing a Q&A we…

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June 6, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly Musings – California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump Provides Insights into Current State of U.S. Solar Demand & Update on 2023E China Solar Demand

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 11-12), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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