Our Research


December 19, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly: US HRC Steel Prices Hold Firm Near $900/st as Mill Discipline Keeps Lead Times Steady

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher Yesterday. Copper +1.28% to $5.33/lb; aluminum +0.40% to $1.41/lb; nickel +1.24% to $7.53/lb; zinc +0.53% to $1.48/lb; lead +0.27% to $1.08/lb; gold -0.21% to $4,329/oz; silver -1.39% to $65.34/oz; platinum +1.28%…

Read More >>

December 16, 2025

Picks & Shovels: HVDC transformer capacity ramps in Memphis, TN

By Austin Wang

Seoul, SK based Hyosung Heavy Industries announced plans to expand capacity by 50% at its 765 kV power transformer plant in Memphis, TN. GEV ($681.92, BUY) – SK-based OEM announces $157mm investment in Memphis HVDC…

Read More >>

December 15, 2025

Could the California DMV’s Case Against Tesla, for Which a Decision is Due Monday, Derail the Recent Rally?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Recent Spate of Stock Pumps Potentially being Timed to “Juice” the Stock Ahead of a Potentially Forthcoming Adverse Ruling in the California DMV’s Case Against Tesla? Strip away the promotional noise and the…

Read More >>

December 12, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL): Checks show 800V DC deficiency as Nvidia blesses the new entrants flooding the product gap

By Austin Wang

We sat down with one of Vertiv’s private competitors in PDUs and liquid cooling to talk through the competitive landscape for the 800V offerings required to serve Vera Rubin architectures. He emphasized that a lack…

Read More >>

December 11, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly: Our Take Heading Into Next Week’s Q4 Steel Updates, HRC vs. Prime Scrap Spreads Widen Further, & Import Arbitrage Risk Back “in Play”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Yesterday’s Close. Copper +0.74% to $5.29/lb; aluminum +0.47% to $1.41/lb; nickel -0.02% to $7.66/lb; zinc +0.10% to $1.48/lb; lead +0.82% to $1.10/lb; gold -0.40% to $4,212/oz; silver +0.71% to $62.25/oz;…

Read More >>

December 10, 2025

Tesla’s Autonomy Mirage: Crowdsourced Hype, Regulatory Reality, and Another Year-End Robotaxi That Won’t Arrive

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Piper Sandler Make a Wild Claim Based on Cherry-Picked Data? Tesla’s share price outperformed in yesterday’s trading session, which many attributed to a Wall Street analyst report from Piper Sandler, which concluded, based on…

Read More >>

December 9, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY) – Power goes SUPERSONIC as GEV updates 2028 floor ahead of buyside target – FLASH

By Austin Wang

We want to call out both the accelerative floor on long-term targets for ’28 and validation on our Power Services thesis. First, GEV guided ’28 EBITDA to $10.4bn vs. our $9.8bn (backing out Prolec) and…

Read More >>

December 8, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Data Dump for Oct ’25 + Fireside Chat w/ Large US Solar Distributor + Why the US ‘TPO’ Market May Disappoint in 2026E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

Read More >>

December 5, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – Greater volumes + bullish contracting should shrug off lower pricing, 3Q Review: PT to $445

By Austin Wang

We spoke with management in the wake of Argan’s F3Q earnings update. We believe investors are missing the forest for the trees, and focusing on orders pricing as opposed to management’s emphasis on staffing capacity…

Read More >>

December 4, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – 3Q First take: Orders miss on pricing

By Austin Wang

Initial take: we back out reported F3Q revs of $251.2mm to get to ~$1.3bn in orders vs. our ~$1.5bn estimate given Basin Ranch and Permian Basin disclosures – backing out $40mm in non-Power Services orders,…

Read More >>

December 4, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly: U.S. Plate Market Celebrates Producer Price Increases & HRC “Price Hike Parade” Appears Set to Continue (bullish)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Lower vs. Yesterday’s Close. Copper -1.15% to $5.19/lb; aluminum +0.72% to $1.41/lb; nickel +0.02% to $7.75/lb; zinc +0.42% to $1.46/lb; lead +0.07% to $1.10/lb; gold -0.11% to $4,198/oz; silver -1.66% to $57.53/oz;…

Read More >>

December 3, 2025

Picks & Shovels: Amazon exits Arizona data center project

By Austin Wang

Amazon has communicated to local municipalities that it will no longer be the end-user for Arizona data center Project Blue. VRT (SELL, $177.31) – Amazon exits AZ data center (link)Amazon (AMZN, not rated) will no…

Read More >>

December 3, 2025

3Q25 Results Disappointed on Sales Timing; Yet Strong Q4 Guide and the “Sprott Put” Keep us BUY Rated; PT Edges Higher to C$99.74/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Happened in Q3? CCJ served up a quarter that fell sharply short of expectations – Q3 adj. EBITDA missed our estimate by 8% – and the culprit isn’t exactly mysterious. Uranium and fuel-services sales…

Read More >>

November 28, 2025

Picks & Shovels: PRIM client advances 200 MW solar project, VRT unveils CAT partnership

By Austin Wang

While we have yet to confirm Primoris’ involvement on the project, Primoris client DESRI received a green light from local regulators to proceed with 200 MW solar + BESS project Coyote Creek in Sacramento County,…

Read More >>

November 26, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly: Prices Likely Have Further Upside from Here on Lackluster Imports + Seasonal Maintenance (steel stocks likely to continue to outperform)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Current Situation. Over the last two weeks, spot HRC has done exactly what the setup suggested – it’s drifted higher, up roughly 5%, with today’s +5.4% d/d surge to $900/st marking the strongest…

Read More >>