Our Research


October 3, 2025

Picks & Shovels: Matador, Siemens Energy 2GW gas order, GEV Onshore Wind order

By Austin Wang

Fermi S-11 sets extremely ambitious timeline for gas & nuclear generation deployments, discloses possible PRIM involvement. Xcel Energy has purchased 2GW in gas generation from GEV competitor Siemens Energy to serve load growth in TX,…

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October 1, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): 3Q25 Preview – Gas-fired upside amidst Matador caution, PT to $168

By Austin Wang

Management continues to emphasize a strong ’26 opportunity-set for continued utility-scale solar gains, but we believe investors expect potential gas generation commentary to drive a possible +HSD % move from these levels. Tweaking our Gas…

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September 29, 2025

China’s PV Installations Fell -55% YoY in Aug., after Falling -45%/-40% in Jul./Jun.; this Collapse Foretells Big Problems Ahead for Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Well, That’s Not Good for Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar. China’s August 2025 solar PV installations (Ex. 1) were cut in half versus last year, coming in at just 7.6GWac. Importantly, if this pace continues,…

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September 28, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL) – Is this Moat Micro-Soft? Reiterate SELL

By Austin Wang

We view Microsoft’s announcement of a new in-house thermal management system as a catalyst on an increasingly negative event path for Vertiv. While our competitors have been quick to point out the Microsoft solutions most…

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September 25, 2025

GLJ Macro Update – Looking at the “Three Horsemen” of U.S. Equity Market Momentum (CTA Flows + Vol Fund Flows + Liquidity), What’s in Store for the Next Few Days/Weeks?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s the Macro Trading Set-Up Headed into September Month-End? In general, into month-end, we believe the market is being steered by three forces – and none of them are fundamentals. That is, barring a surprise…

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September 24, 2025

Metals & Mining Snapshot (“The Daily Smelt”): September 24

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME metal prices mostly lower vs. previous close. Copper flat at $4.50/lb; Nickel +0.19% to $7.73/lb; Aluminum -0.19% to $1.32/lb; Zinc -0.35% to $1.39/lb; Lead -0.46% to $1.08/lb; Gold -0.07% to $3,762/oz; silver -0.33% to $44/oz;…

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September 23, 2025

Those Assuming Third-Party-Ownership (“TPO”) Solar Installs Grow in 2026E May be in for a “Rude Awakening”; PT Edges Higher to $23.49/shr from $19.80/shr Prior; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Final Word. Bears have been reluctant to press ahead of both: (1) potential demand pull-forward in Q3 and Q4 as the 25D credit phaseout approaches, as well as (2) calls that TPO solar installations will…

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September 22, 2025

Initiate Argan (AGX) at HOLD: Staffing “Show-me” Story Limits Further Revisions

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of Argan at HOLD with a PT of $251 (~3% downside) as investor expectations have run ahead of management’s ability to scale into what we agree is an generational demand for generation…

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September 22, 2025

Initiate Primoris (PRIM) at BUY: The Generation E&C – Incremental Crews Win in Gas & Solar

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of Primoris Services at BUY with a PT of $160 to highlight a shift in the utility capex cycle towards generation, and emphasize how PRIM’s strong market position and unique staffing capabilities…

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September 22, 2025

Capacity is King: Initiating coverage on Generation E&Cs PRIM & AGX

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage on solar & gas generation E&Cs Primoris (PRIM $121.94, BUY) and Argan (AGX $259.58, HOLD) at a time when E&Cs are seeing unprecedented pricing power. The conversation is shifting now from if…

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September 17, 2025

Wall Street’s Q3 Delivery Estimates Remain Irresponsibly Low; but if you’re a TSLA Bull, Q3 Earnings are Shaping up to be Scary, with Q4 Looking Downright “Terrifying”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Consensus hasn’t bothered to update its 3Q25E Tesla delivery estimate since early July – which tells you all you need to know about the rigor of Wall Street coverage here. We believe the Street’s Q3…

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September 15, 2025

Metals & Mining Snapshot (“The Daily Smelt”): September 15

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Inaugural Metals & Mining Daily Snapshot. Welcome to the first edition of our Metals & Mining Daily Snapshot. Starting tomorrow, you’ll have this in your inbox at 7am every morning – think of it…

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September 8, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Data Dump for June ’25 + Wood Mackenzie/SEIA Updated 2025E Solar Forecast

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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September 4, 2025

Steel Industry Monitor: Waiting for an ‘Upturn’, While Reality Keeps Delivering ‘Flatlines’

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Inside? Twenty-three exhibits capturing the core industry trends that will likely dictate North American steel pricing in the months ahead. Conclusion. Spot HRC prices have held mostly steady over the past two weeks, but…

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September 4, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): Mitsubishi goes Heavy on Gas – emerging positive event-path for GEV? PT to $757, Reiterate BUY

By Austin Wang

We view near-term underperformance as a buying opportunity ahead of a September conference season where management could announce a matching expansion. Reiterate BUY, PT to $757 – +31% upside from current levels. +30% capacity expansion…

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